VUCA and Other Analytics in Business Resilience, Part A

Purpose: As a result of the transition from the paradigm of ‘knowledge and skills’ learning to the university of uncertainty, the concept of VUCA has grown for the revision of various adaptive models of educational practices.

Need for Study: The primary goal is to explore the research field of the educational system and learning environments; the investigation of scientific knowledge is enabled by bibliometric analysis, revealing through it the fluctuations of the literature.

Methodology: To better view the historical evolution of publications in the educational system field, two data samples were integrated into this study, with the focus of the chapter being on the authors, keywords, articles, journals, subject analysis, word cloud analysis, and cluster analysis. The first includes 1,620 Web of Science-recorded documents published between 1991 and 2022, and the second sample comprises 159 Scopus-recorded papers published between 1978 and 2022.

Findings: The first empirical results show that interest in this subject escalated around 2008. The main concerns around this research field are the labour market, teaching-learning, technology, economic development, the medical field, and sustainability. After 2020, a new subject took amplitude, seemingly connected to the educational system and learning environment, that subject being ’COVID-19.

Practical Implications: The relationship between authors, keywords, and sources is illustrated through Sankey diagrams, from which valuable information can be extracted: nine of the Scopus authors have published articles in the ‘Journal of Higher Education Policy and Management’ documents that present the following list of keywords: ‘higher education’, ‘education’, ‘management’, ‘leadership’, and ‘tertiary education’.

Purpose: The business world has become more turbulent than ever. Organisations must be proactive to meet the challenges of the increasingly disruptive, dynamic, and unpredictable world. One technique that has supported leaders and organisations under challenging circumstances is ‘backcasting’, which works by envisioning a desirable future state and then working backwards to attain it. The current study aims to extend an understanding of the backcasting practices and strategic approaches that can be used by leadership teams in different industries in order to survive in turbulent times and can be adapted within and beyond any pandemic.

Methodology: The research employs a desktop research method to review and compare the most commonly used strategies that leaders from different sectors can use for their respective organisations to thrive in the VUCA world.

Findings: There needs to be more research on the applicability and relevance of backcasting that the leaders of different sectors can employ. The study would provide insights that would bridge the existing research gap and come up with suitable strategies that can be employed for dealing with VUCA challenges in the Indian context.

Significance: The outcome of the study will be helpful to the leaders in designing and aligning ‘out of the box’ backcasting strategies to survive in the highly disruptive world.

Introduction: Amidst Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA), turbulence is a vital component of an entrepreneurial landscape. VUCA world has set a new dynamic in the business environment and organisation’s settings. In such an environment, it is pertinent for entrepreneurs to exhibit creativity, innovative service behaviour, and performance.

Purpose: The study investigates whether creativity, innovative service behaviour, and performance of entrepreneurs are fostered through employee engagement practices in a highly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous environment.

Methodology: The methodology involves a systematic review and meta-synthesis. By identifying the major topics, a systematic literature review helped critically analyse and synthesise the literature.

Findings: According to the study, corporate entrepreneurial factors like (management reinforcement, reward/reinforcement, job autonomy/discretion, time attainability, and organisational boundaries) entrepreneurial potential, entrepreneurial orientation, human capital, self-efficacy beliefs lead to employee engagement, which, in turn, fosters creativity, innovative service behaviour, and performance among entrepreneurs in the VUCA world.

Purpose: Twenty-first-century leaders operate in an unpredictable and complex business environment. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) nature of the business milieu and proved to be a real-life test for organisations and their leaders. It brought challenges and losses at personal, organisational, societal, national, and global levels. Nevertheless, some leaders and organisations thrived during and after the pandemic. This research assimilates leadership lessons from extant literature and real-life cases of leadership successes and failures. The authors aim to consolidate leadership strategies valuable in unpredictable, demanding, and complex times like COVID-19.

Methodology: The research relies on an extant literature review and opinions of four c-suite leaders captured through semi-structured interviews. The study uses content analysis to analyse the primary data collected.

Findings: The present research presents its results as a VUCA Leader Toolkit. It consolidates learnings from real-life case studies, extant literature, business reports, and experts’ opinions. It addresses the gap in existing research on VUCA-suited leadership strategies. The outcome of the present study is a clear, adequate, explicit, and well-defined list of VUCA-necessitated leadership strategies.

Originality/value: The research proves its utility in providing the VUCA Leader Toolkit. The outcomes carry usefulness for both present and future business leaders. The business environment today is ever-changing, complex, and uncertain. This unpredictability, uncertainty, complexity, and fuzziness would proliferate in the coming times. Hence, it is imperative to have a list of leadership strategies that may serve as a ready reckoner for leaders.

Purpose: The COVID-19 pandemic has been a good example of a Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA) world. Higher educational institutions (HEIs) have faced a massive hit because the jobs in this industry have become unexpected. Considering the most valuable assets ‘Teachers’ crunched in the VUCA crisis, the study intends to determine if personal harmony (PH) and organisational citizenship behaviour (OCB) would enhance teachers’ job satisfaction (JS).

Design/methodology/approach: Data are collected from the teachers of Indian HEIs and teachers who have experienced the impact of the COVID-19 catastrophe (VUCA). Considering the pandemic restrictions, data have been collected through an online survey (N = 364).

Practical Implications: PH is an individual’s internal quality and attribute that cannot be developed on force or situational need. Even in an uncertain situation, teachers have tried their best to contribute through professional service. Hence, people who possess PH contribute their best even though unsatisfied with their jobs.

Originality/value: This study has focused on finding the relationship between two different variables, PH and OCB (which has not been explored in Asian countries, majorly in India, where it has a vast cultural diversity and structure influencing the educational policies) that hinders the factors influencing JS, where these two variables are highly influenced by hygiene factors such as values, culture, ethical standards, personal belief, leadership styles, and fair treatment showcased by the organisations/institutions.

Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market.

Need for the Study: The external market’s internal/own shocks and volatility spillovers influence portfolio choices in domestic stock market returns. Hence, it is required to investigate the internal shock in the domestic market and the external volatility spillovers from other countries.

Methodology: This study employs a quantitative method using ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model. All Share Price Index (ASPI) is the proxy for the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) stock return. It uses daily time-series data from 1^st April 2010 to 21^st June 2023.

Findings: The findings revealed that internal/own and external shocks substantially impact the stock price volatility in CSE. Significant volatility clusters and persistence with extended memory in ASPI confirm internal/own shock in the market. Furthermore, CSE receives significant volatility shock from the USA, confirming external shock. This study’s findings highlight the importance of considering internal and external shocks in portfolio decision-making.

Practical Implications: Understanding the influence of internal shocks helps investors manage their portfolios and adapt to market volatility. Recognising significant volatility spillovers from external markets, especially the USA, informs diversification strategies. From a policy standpoint, the study emphasises the need for robust regulations and risk management measures to address shocks in domestic and global markets. This study adds value to the literature by assessing the sources of volatility shocks in the CSE, employing the ARMA-GARCH, a sophisticated econometrics model, to capture stock returns volatility, enhancing understanding of the CSE’s volatility dynamics.

Purpose: This chapter examines the effect of COVID-19 on the stock market volatility (SMV) in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), Sri Lanka.

Need for the Study: The study is necessary to understand investor behaviour, market efficiency, and risk management strategies during a global crisis.

Methodology: Utilising daily All Share Price Index (ASPI) data from 2 January 2018 to 31 August 2021, the data are divided into subsamples corresponding to the pre-pandemic period, the pandemic period, and distinct waves of the pandemic. The impact of the pandemic is investigated using the Mann–Whitney U test, the Kruskal–Wallis test, and the Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model.

Findings: The pandemic considerably affected CSE – the Mann–Whitney U test produced different market returns during the pre-COVID and COVID eras. The Kruskal–Wallis test improved performance during COVID-19 but did not continue to do so across COVID-19 waves. The EGARCH model detected increased volatility and risk during the first wave, but the second and third waves outperformed the first. COVID-19 had a minimal overall effect on CSE market results. GARCH and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models identified long-term variance memory and volatility clustering. The News Impact Curve (NIC) showed that negative news had a more significant impact on market return volatility than positive news, even if the asymmetric term was not statistically significant.

Practical Implications: This study offers significant insight into how Sri Lanka’s SMV is affected by COVID-19. The findings help create efficient mitigation strategies to mitigate the negative consequences of future events.

Purpose: Innovation is a multi-dimensional phenomenon influenced at the organisational level by internal and external factors that can determine how innovative an organisation can be, determining a firm’s business performance. This chapter measures and predicts how innovative a company can be, considering key internal factors using modern data analytics/science.

Need for Study: The increasing challenge of modern business operations is affected by how quickly, sustainably, effectively, and efficiently companies can innovate to mitigate the dynamic challenges of current business environments and evolving customer needs. The ability to predict, measure, and manage innovation becomes necessary to ensure that businesses are fit for purpose.

Methodology: A model was designed following the study hypotheses and statistically tested. A historical data sample from the OECD global industry dataset for eight years was used for the analysis. The ordinary least square method was used to test for model fit. Also, in machine learning engineering, predictive analysis using the multivariate linear regression analysis method was carried out.

Findings: The results support the hypotheses that an organisation’s capacity to be innovative can be measured and predicted, and it is influenced by a good number of internal factors or independent variables at various degrees.

Practical Implications: Managers must understand how to measure and predict innovation metrics to manage innovation better, ultimately leading to better business outcomes and performance. Also proposed are new measurement matrices for innovation management: innovation capacity (I_C), business innovation value (BIV), innovation creation factor (ICF), and a practical data-driven innovation management and prediction system.

Introduction: A company or organisation must resolve various problems in the business environment for better operation in any corporate environment. Such issues are traditionally handled in multiple ways. A small sector unit with many employees encounters this corporate issue, for example, the handicraft sector. The impact of handicraft issues and their intensity, speed, and regularity is growing in our system.

Purpose: This chapter studies how small businesses might succeed in the handcraft industry in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environment. There is a lack of proper knowledge of how the VUCA affects business proficiency in the Indian handicraft sector. A novel business strategy for the handicraft sector, like other business proficiency called best practices in handicraft business in a VUCA environment, will be presented along with a discussion about VUCA environments. This considers both the individual influences of each particular word and the overall impact of VUCA.

Methodology: The study included a thorough literature analysis for three learning areas: performance improvement, including VUCA, and the leadership incorporation of risk and quality. Awareness in the trade will be examined in further sections, as the mastery of VUCA is achieved with various traditional and digital management ideas.

Findings: The research defined a new unorganised firm concept to maintain and succeed in a high VUCA environment in the handicraft sector, identifying 18 important success characteristics through a comprehensive literature review. The authors proposed a conceptual framework for fusing quality management to attain proficiency in the handicraft sector VUCA environment.

Introduction: The pandemic era has given rise to emerging VUCA factors, characterised by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Navigating the impact of these challenges is essential for adapting and thriving in a post-pandemic world; therefore, it is important to identify VUCA factors.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to identify and analyse the VUCA factors that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on sectors such as hospitality, tourism, education, construction, manufacturing, Information Technology, healthcare, and automobiles.

Need for the Study: Analysing emerging VUCA factors is crucial for businesses to prepare for unforeseen events. While VUCA factors were previously studied during significant events like the Greater Recession, BREXIT, and demonetisation, the pandemic has presented unprecedented challenges, making the identification of emerging VUCA components crucial.

Methodology: The methodology involves reviewing articles and research papers to understand the pandemic’s impact on various sectors. The findings provide insights into prominent VUCA factors and their implications for businesses, contributing to existing knowledge.

Findings: This research uncovers the challenges organisations encountered in the pandemic’s VUCA environment, offering insights into uncertainties and strategies for survival. It highlights the importance of adaptability, resilience, and innovation in overcoming VUCA’s negative impacts and establishing a new business paradigm.

Practical Implications: This chapter is essential in providing valuable insights for organisations, policymakers, and businesses on crisis preparedness, emphasising the significance of agility, robust contingency planning, and sector-specific considerations. Reviewing operations and implementing backup plans, businesses can develop effective strategies for long-term resilience and success in the face of unforeseen disruptions.

Introduction: The government has taken many initiatives for the overall growth of India after liberalisation and remarkably performed to make India an emerging economy. Due to changes in macroeconomic conditions, investment in companys’ shares includes the possibility of bearing high risk, which cannot be eliminated but, to some extent, minimised. The persistence of risks motivates investors to invest in different available options of investment. Gearing measures, a company’s financial leverage, represent the risk afforded within the company’s capital structure.

Purpose: The research aims to identify the risk-return analysis of financial geared stocks of Nifty 50 companies in India, which have debt equity ratios of more than 1.

Methodology: Convenience and cluster sampling techniques were used to identify companies with debt equity ratios of more than 1. The considered time period is 2010–2019.

Findings: This research found capital structure ratios, debt equity ratio, and total debt ratio. The total equity ratio does not have any visible effect on any of the dependent variables, i.e., Return on equity (ROE), Return on Assets (ROA), Earnings per share (EPS), Return on capital employed (ROCE). It explains the impact of high-levered firms’ performance on profitability and functioning. The study highlights that highly geared companies do not significantly impact the ROA, proving Modigliani and Miller’s (1958) irrelevant theory.

Purpose: This study analyses how investments and specific financial factors affect the financial performance of businesses in Kosovo. Exploring the relationship between investments and financial performance and their impact on performance volatility, performance is assessed using return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) investments.

Methodology: Quantitative methods using secondary data from audited financial statements of Kosova manufacturing and commercial enterprises cover a 3-year period (2019–2021), involving 40 enterprises with 120 observations. Statistical tests such as descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, linear regression, Hausman–Taylor regression, fixed effects, random effects, and generalised estimating equations (GEE) model are applied. The study also utilises ARCH–GARCH analysis to assess the relationship between investments and performance volatility.

Findings: Investments positively impact the financial performance of Kosova businesses and significantly reduce performance volatility. Long-term liabilities, retained earnings, and short-term liabilities also play a role in reducing asset return volatility, while cash flow from financial activities increases it. Investments, cash flows from financial activities, long-term liabilities, short-term liabilities, retained earnings, and solvency affect equity return volatility.

Practical Implications: The study sheds light on how investments and financial factors influence the financial performance and volatility of Kosova businesses. Policymakers can use these insights to create policies that foster the development of commercial and manufacturing enterprises, given their importance in Kosovo’s economy.

Significance: This research provides valuable insights for business managers to enhance investment strategies and improve financial performance. Policymakers can rely on this academic study to enhance the economic environment and promote the growth of businesses in Kosovo.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic was unprecedented, and none of the world’s think tanks could have predicted how far it would spread. People visualise the pandemic as a classic example of a VUCA environment (an environment characterised by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity). Managing COVID-19 requires unique and different leadership qualities.

Purpose: This study’s rationale emphasises that VUCA demands strategic and agile leadership. Leaders across the globe must acknowledge the fact that the elements of VUCA, i.e. volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, are not synonymous and hence need differential treatment. Also, recommend adopting agile leadership to tackle the VUCA world.

Methodology: This is a conceptual study focusing on agile leadership. The study addresses the challenge of leading in the VUCA environment. The constituting components of VUCA are differentiated, followed by an extensive literature review of agile leadership.

Findings: VUCA is the new normal and is there to stay. Business leaders still need to counter VUCA due to their incapacity to distinguish and treat the components equally. Furthermore, there is an emergent need to develop an agile workforce, agile organisations, and agile leadership to combat VUCA. The study indicates that business leaders must be agile enough to handle the COVID-19 pandemic and future crises. There is a constant need to ensure agility. This study will provide a deep insight into VUCA and help business leaders emerge victorious in turbulent times.