ARCH–GARCH Analysis Between Investments and Financial Performance Volatility in Kosovo's Commercial and Manufacturing Enterprises

Abstract

Purpose: This study analyses how investments and specific financial factors affect the financial performance of businesses in Kosovo. Exploring the relationship between investments and financial performance and their impact on performance volatility, performance is assessed using return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) investments.

Methodology: Quantitative methods using secondary data from audited financial statements of Kosova manufacturing and commercial enterprises cover a 3-year period (2019–2021), involving 40 enterprises with 120 observations. Statistical tests such as descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, linear regression, Hausman–Taylor regression, fixed effects, random effects, and generalised estimating equations (GEE) model are applied. The study also utilises ARCH–GARCH analysis to assess the relationship between investments and performance volatility.

Findings: Investments positively impact the financial performance of Kosova businesses and significantly reduce performance volatility. Long-term liabilities, retained earnings, and short-term liabilities also play a role in reducing asset return volatility, while cash flow from financial activities increases it. Investments, cash flows from financial activities, long-term liabilities, short-term liabilities, retained earnings, and solvency affect equity return volatility.

Practical Implications: The study sheds light on how investments and financial factors influence the financial performance and volatility of Kosova businesses. Policymakers can use these insights to create policies that foster the development of commercial and manufacturing enterprises, given their importance in Kosovo’s economy.

Significance: This research provides valuable insights for business managers to enhance investment strategies and improve financial performance. Policymakers can rely on this academic study to enhance the economic environment and promote the growth of businesses in Kosovo.

Citation

Morina, F., Syla, A. and Alija, S. (2024), "ARCH–GARCH Analysis Between Investments and Financial Performance Volatility in Kosovo's Commercial and Manufacturing Enterprises", Singh, D., Sood, K., Kautish, S. and Grima, S. (Ed.) VUCA and Other Analytics in Business Resilience, Part A (Emerald Studies in Finance, Insurance, and Risk Management), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 229-265. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-902-420241012