Contemporary Issues in International Trade

The global economy has already experienced recession in 1975, 1982, 1991, 2007 (the Great Recession or the Global Financial Meltdown), and 2020 (The Pandemic Recession). When hope of recovery has just started to emerge with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth reaching 5.7% in 2021, dark clouds are gathering ominously on the horizon again. In January 2022, the World Bank's forecasts (for global growth) were 4.1% for 2022 and 3.3% for 2023. Not only the indicators like industrial activity are shrinking, consumer and investor confidence is at a low point, workers are losing jobs, profit margins and global trade are showing a downward trend, after a period of post-pandemic expansion. But most worrying is the slowing down of the Big Trio of USA-China-Euro Zone that currently accounts for over 50% of real global GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms and contributed 62% to global growth over 2015–2019. Moreover, energy and food prices are showing rising trend, and Ukraine war is showing no sign of ending in the near future. In this context, the present chapter attempts to analyze whether with prices rising and productive activities (including trade) shrinking (described as “stagflation”), is the world headed for another serious slump, and if that happens, what will be its severity? It also tries to point out some limitations of the policy suggestions of the structural projection models used by the World Bank. It also tries to point out the policy suggestions of the models used by the World Bank.

The concept of the “global production network” (GPN) has emerged as a framework for analyzing the intricate connections between a dominant or pivotal firm and its suppliers across various countries. ¹ The expansion of GPNs signifies that trade encompasses not only the final products but also the parts and components (P&C) involved in their production. The reduction of tariff barriers and advancements in transportation and communication technology have facilitated the fragmentation of production processes across different countries. This has led to a significant transformation in the nature and structure of global trade. This chapter aims to synthesize and present this literature. By identifying the key drivers, determinants, and consequences of fragmentation trade through a literature-based approach, this study aids in assessing the opportunities and challenges those lagging countries, like India, encounter in terms of increased participation in GPNs.

Trade can be severely impacted by economic crisis whatever might have been the trigger. Protectionist tendencies are also normally on the rise during such times having further impact on trade and associated variables. In this chapter, an attempt has been made to assess the impact of economic crisis on international trade. Three episodes of crisis have been picked up for the same, the oil crisis of early 1970s, the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2008, and the COVID-19 crisis of 2019. Each episode is triggered by different factors. Do the differing triggers ultimately lead to different impact on trade? This chapter first tries to answer this question at aggregate trade level and then across country groups and product groups. Interesting trends are observed. Across product groups, both agricultural and manufacturing goods exports were more impacted during the GFC, whereas for services exports, the impact was severe during the COVID-19 pandemic. Across country groups, the high-income countries were more impacted during the first two episodes, whereas the less-developed countries (LDCs) were more impacted during the pandemic. Further, a gravity model estimation was attempted to empirically measure the effects of crisis for the world as a whole and for India and China separately. All country bilateral trades were significantly impacted by the three episodes. After controlling for the relevant factors for India and China, certain differences in impact are observed. China seems to be less impacted by destination country factors.

A country is vulnerable when it is susceptible to shocks. This chapter uses data from 34 developing countries to investigate vulnerability trends for them since the 1990s. We find that the level of economic development is inversely related to macroeconomic vulnerability. The countries that became less primarily vulnerable belong to the upper middle-income and middle-income groups; the reverse is true for most vulnerable countries up to 2014. Argentina and Papua New Guinea became more vulnerable from 2016 to 2020. Income plays a crucial role in deciding vulnerability in the globalization era. Geographical location is a key factor in measuring vulnerability, especially in African countries. But the reverse result took place in the de-globalization era. The majority of the upper middle-income and lower middle-income countries are among the most vulnerable. Surprisingly, lower-income groups include the nations with significantly lower IMV values.

One of the major objectives of India's National Auto Policy (NAP) (2018) is to help the country emerge as a hub for automotive production and research and development (R&D). In order to fulfill this long-term objective, two policies had been proposed by NAP (2018). First, possibility of exploring regional trade agreements (RTAs) with leading countries, having attractive markets for Indian players, was considered. Second, the policy aimed to evaluate the potential implications of joining the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) WP.29 1958 agreement within the next 5 years for tackling the potential major technical barriers to trade (TBT), as India's current accession in UNECE WP.29 1998 agreement may not be sufficient for ensuring mutual recognition of standards in many of the partner countries. India is presently engaged in RTA negotiations with several developed and developing countries, with potentially beneficial repercussions for automobile exports. However, the question of accession to UNECE WP.29 1958 agreement has not received similar attention of late, which may restrain the anticipated sectoral export growth, particularly through RTA-led market access outcomes. Given this background, the current analysis considers India's potential sectoral trade growth with eight partner countries, in the case of RTA-led tariff reforms, through a WITS-SMART simulation exercise. The obtained simulation results indicate that India needs to focus on the technical standard harmonization question for reaping the full benefits arising from tariff reforms in several upcoming RTAs, for boosting auto-exports in the post-RTA period.

This study aims to determine the export price pass-through elasticity, specifically for Indian exports. It employs static and dynamic panel data techniques to estimate these elasticities. Notably, the pass-through effect is more significant in the long term compared to the short term. The dynamic panel analysis, considering broader economic factors, identifies trade openness and global demand as statistically significant in explaining export price variations. Additionally, the study reveals that the response of export prices to exchange rate changes depends on the nature of those changes, with depreciation having a lesser impact than appreciation. Furthermore, this chapter emphasizes the importance of analyzing these effects at the product level for a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms. The implications of these findings underscore the crucial role of exchange rates as a policy tool for promoting exports and economic growth, as well as their potential in reducing current account deficits.

India's manufacturing exports are heavily tilted toward primary and resource-based products, while its Asian peers have a significant proportion of high and mid-tech products in their export baskets. An attempt is thus made to understand the hurdles faced by technology-intensive exports by India, using gravity panel estimates on its high, mid, and low-tech exports, using data across 130 countries from 2001 to 2019. In line with the Knowledge Theories of trade, which postulate that technical and scientific knowledge and innovation provide trade advantages, this chapter also tries to understand how India fares on this front. We use Principal Component Analysis to construct an index which provides a relative understanding of India's technical and scientific knowledge base.

We conclude that nontariff measures (NTMs) are a stringent hurdle faced by Indian exports, especially in the European Union. Tariffs have the most debilitating effect on its mid-tech exports and the least on high-tech exports. Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) are most effective in creating trade for mid-tech exports and least in case of low-tech exports. The index for ascertaining India's relative knowledge base shows that while India ranked 6th in 2017, much higher than its Asian peers, its high and mid-tech exports lagged behind these countries. This puzzle is explained by the fact that scientific research in India has very little industry collaboration and thus is out of sync with market needs. Hence, the prevalent scientific and technical knowledge in India does not have the expected favorable impact on its technology-intensive exports.

The liberalization initiative commenced in India from 1991 onwards, replacing the four-decade long import substitution policy. The primary objective was to enhance the role of foreign and private investment, in line with the newly embraced outward-oriented growth model. The government had undertaken several policy initiatives since then, especially to strengthen the manufacturing sector which plays an important role in the economic development of any country. The current study evaluates the effects of the liberalization policy in India on industrial outcomes. Recent studies have found that when firm heterogeneity is present in trade models, reforms will lead to a decrease in the number of firms and a rise in their average size (Melitz, 2003). A dataset of 24 manufacturing industries had been used in the current study. We test empirically whether liberalization had led to a rise in the average size of establishments as stated in the literature. We also attempt to analyze the magnitude of trade costs in terms of the impact of reforms on wages and prices. The empirical analysis based on the difference-in-difference (DID) estimation method shows that on average, trade reforms do not lead to an increase in the real wages and average size of establishments. In addition, prices appear to increase in the long run due to liberalization, with potential ramifications.

Increasing trade liberalization and financial integration with rise in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have an intense impact on the labor market of both the developed as well as the developing world. The restructuring of economic activity has resulted in destruction of jobs in some parts of the economy and start-ups of new firms in the other part, growing import competition with foreign firms displacing local firms, relocation of jobs from high wage to low wage nations. It is claimed that rapid globalization has also the outcome of “race to the bottom” in terms of wages and the quality of employment. As per the latest International Labor Organization (ILO) Global Employment Trends, 2022, total global number of unemployed youths is estimated to reach 73 million in 2022 but still six million above the prepandemic level of 2019. The latest press release October 2022 points out that trade growth is likely to experience a slowdown in 2023 due to multiple shocks on global economy. High energy prices due to the Russia–Ukraine war is expected to contract household expenditure and raise the cost of manufacturing. The present chapter seeks to analyze the impact of trade flows on the labor market – job creation or job loss, wage inequality, movement toward informal economy, gender inequalities, and other related issues. The data are based on various reports available from the ILO, the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and World Trade Oorganization (WTO) Trade Reports. The empirical analysis also confirms that there is a unidirectional causality from trade to employment generation.

Insurance is defined as the equitable transfer of the risk of a loss, from one entity to another, in exchange for a premium and can be thought of as a guaranteed small loss to prevent a large, possibly a devastating, loss. Insurance is often challenging to quantify and count its values. A study on international insurance comparison will be more justified and result driven only when it is based on the comparable economic-adjusted insurance growth level. This motivates the study to introduce a model, Benchmark Ratio of Insurance Penetration (BRIP), for insurance growth comparison across the selected countries. This model makes an attempt to compare the relative stance between a country's Insurance Penetration (IP) and the selected countries’ average IP at an economic level which is at par with the country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The study is done by selecting the G7 countries and the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS) nations to have a proper representation of the world. These two groups of countries can give a picture of developed, emerging as well as underdeveloped countries. The paper uses the data of 12 countries for the past years (2007–2020) as the sample to study the objective of insurance comparison. The implications of such an analysis will be able to serve the purpose of insurance companies for their strategic expansion planning on an international basis. The insurance companies can depend on this more economically adjusted data when the policymakers want to lay foot in newer countries or expand in the existing ones.

The purpose of this study is to examine the welfare effects of product standards (which fall under Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs)) on an exporting country when the country by its own choice prefers to follow the null standard for the domestic market, which is not possible due to high set up cost at two different standards. The model has used a theoretical framework to analyze the effects and has derived some important results. If the standard is not linked with a true negative externality, the exporting country, given the assumptions of the model will always prefer to be discriminated by “tariff” and the importing country will prefer to protect its market by “tariff” rather than going for NTB. The typical assumptions taken here resemble the trade between developed and developing countries when the developed country imposes some minimum standard on a product but becomes relatively “costly” for the developing country to comply with. As the importing country is not free to set tariffs, it will use NTB as a minimum standard (as it is welfare-improving than free trade). However, the minimum standard also affects the exporting country's local producers and consumers. So NTB leads to a worse situation for both countries and definitely worst for the exporting country. Using a game theoretic framework, the study shows that the imposition of standards which does not address any real externality can be an optimum response for an importing country leading to a loss in the global welfare compared to a free trade situation.

International business, environmental issues along with economic growth are the three of the most important aspects of development economics. One cannot deny the fact that a nation, in modern globalized world, cannot achieve high growth without getting into trade with rest of the world as well as without hurting the environment. Nations should not forget the fact that we are in the process of achieving Sustainable Development Goals which we have imposed upon ourselves for the sake of a safe world. BRICS nations are five such nations which not only account for more than 30% of the world's output but also have around 41% population. These features coupled with high growth rates of these nations make them the emerging economies with high chances to dominate the world economy in nearing decades. In this study, by the help of simultaneous equation model and panel data analysis, we have seen how far these three important issues are influenced by one another and related variables in these five nations. We have found that both gross domestic product (GDP) and trade-related variables have been influential upon one another. But these variables getting influenced by emission as well as influencing emission are areas of worries. Good economic growth coupled with safe environment in a globalized world is what we desire for which BRICS economies need to implement certain policies that would ensure their dominance in the world economy and save the environment.

For the past few years, in a purely competitive and dynamic environment, the supply chain plays a crucial role to adapt the business as it is very contingent on collaborative integration as well as flexibility. Many specialized applications are implemented to improve the flow control of the supply chain. One of the most important new technological applications in the supply chain is blockchain technology which has garnered the attention of many business owners as this technology can be quickly adapted to the dynamic business environment. Blockchain technology has been gaining importance and acceptability over the past few years. Blockchain technology has found significant success in all fields, including the banking and finance sector, health, manufacturing, transportation, and many others. Recently, the researchers have contributed significantly toward understanding blockchain technology and its application in the organizational and technology-specific factors that play a crucial role in driving its adoption in the supply chain. Blockchain technology plays a vital role to maintain trust among the stakeholder of the supply chain. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss a theoretical framework for blockchain adoption in the supply chain in business. The outcomes of this chapter endorse that companies invest in blockchain technology so that the supply chain becomes more transparent, flexible, and secure. In the end, this chapter has also given contemplations on the security issues of implementing blockchain in the field of collaboration and integration.

Misinformation can influence decision-making by fueling individual's belief, prejudices, and stereotypes. In the context of international trade, misinformation refers to the spread of false or misleading information and facts mostly with the malicious intent of maligning reputation of products, services, trade policies of a country and thus negatively influencing liberal trade policies toward that country. Stereotypes and prejudices fueled by misinformation coupled with economic nationalism and populism cast a dark shadow over the liberal international order. Exaggerated claims about unfair trade practices laced with stereotypes, prejudices, and misinformation can fuel tensions and may eventually lead to trade dispute and retaliatory action such as the imposition of tariffs or breakdown of trade blocs. Fake News, as a term, came into prominence recently during the 2016 US elections. The spread of fake news during the election generated remarkable interest among researchers. While most research focused on the effect of misinformation, a few studies have shown the influence of misinformation in changing trade preferences. The intricate connection among trading partners can propagate misinformation. Misinformation can lead policymakers to undertake protectionist policies. However, policies driven by misinformation, taken by major economies, can have strong rippling effects on other trading partners because of their strong network connectedness. Therefore, it motivates us to understand and evaluate international trade in terms of network statistics. This chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the network effects of some major and emerging economic powers involved in bilateral or multilateral trade agreements.

Asia has emerged as the fastest growing economic region in the world at present. The region is endowed with 60% of global population with a huge market size, making the region an attractive destination for trade to the countries around the world. In 2017, almost 38% of global import was made solely by this region. Among the Asian countries, India has been able to establish itself as a consistent performer in trade during last three decades. The volume of its global trade (export + import) has increased remarkably by more than 32 times (from 33.22 billion USD in 1988 to 1,081.36 billion USD in 2017) within this period. India's trade with its major Asian partners has gone through a considerable change in its volume, direction, nature, and composition in the period of trade liberalization. Both export and import have increased manifold during this period with a faster increment in imports over its exports, resulting a huge trade deficit of 109.36 billion USD in 2017. Undoubtedly, it is a matter of concern for India. The present study is an attempt to evaluate the changes in pattern of India's trade, volume of export and import, and balance of trade with other Asian countries in the context of changes in trade policy, tariff rates, exchange rates, FDI, and economic growth during 1988 to 2017.

This chapter focuses to study the aspect of dynamic profitability of the Indian computer industry in the post tariff rationalization period, i.e., complete elimination of tariff on imported computers parts and component after implementation of Information Technology Agreement (ITA) in 2004. If trade liberalization affects profitability, then it also interrupts the firm's financial structure because a firm reduces its short-run debts when it generates huge profit. On the contrary, higher marginal return or profitability of asset encourages the debtor to invest more. In fact, trade liberalization may affect investment through marginal profitability of asset by varying projected sales and costs of imported inputs, i.e., by altering the imported input price. This study examines the viable relationship between dynamic profitability and directives of the ITA. The sample selected from 51 Indian computer firms (14 hardware firms and 37 software firms) level data ranging from 2000–2001 to 2018–2019 and by application of dynamic panel data, the results are analyzed in this research work. This chapter observes that return on asset is negatively significant with the ratio between short-term liability and total liability for both the software and hardware sector of Indian computer industry in post-ITA policy timeline.

New trends in global trade including rise in services, global value chains, and the digital economy are opening up important economic opportunities for women. Trade has the potential to expand women's role in the economy, decrease inequality, and expand women's access to skills and education. Trade can dramatically improve women's lives, creating new jobs, enhancing consumer choice, and increasing women's bargaining power in society. In Bangladesh economy, the women led micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) play a noteworthy role by providing services and goods, creating employment generation particularly for women (UN Women, 2020). According to an ILO report, the majority of female-owned SMEs in Bangladesh are involved in the trading sector, followed by the manufacturing and service sectors (Fatima, 2023). This chapter is based on the case studies on 50 women entrepreneurs in various levels in Bangladesh and 10 key informant interviews of government officials, business associations, academics, researcher, microcredit organizations. This is encouraging that due to government's women friendly policies and organizational supports along with better networking through social media in Bangladesh, more and more women of various backgrounds in Bangladesh are coming to business though still concentrated on few traditional areas but they are making space for themselves and creating employment for poorest segment of women and educated young women.

Globalization of agriculture via the evergreen revolution (which encompasses large-scale production-collection-cleaning-processing-packaging-transportation-storage-distribution-sale of high-value cereals-fruits-flowers-vegetables-agrofuel-feedstock through technology-intensive global value chains) has opened the door to corporate capital involvement in agriculture. While the mainstream perspectives and international organizations have optimistically viewed this as a catalyst for inclusive growth, this article seeks to unveil the concealed hegemony of capital underlying the ostensibly beneficial façade of the evergreen revolution. It underscores the concerns regarding the immiseration of asset-poor farmers, petty nonfarm entrepreneurs and labourers resulting from the globalization of agriculture. Furthermore, it explores the implications for micro and macro food security in this context.

The context of skill creation and its development is fundamental to sustainable economic growth with vertical improvement in well-being. Now when it comes to the case of less developed countries, the implication of international trade in skill formation takes an idiosyncratic shape so far as our concern: a dearth of skill education and lack of evenness in access to skill education due to the underlying rampant and pronounced economic inequality (i.e., inequality in income and wealth) among people as what is quite typical. Against this backdrop, this chapter seeks to develop a general equilibrium model in line with Jones (1965 & 1971) and Beladi and Marjit (1996) to address how leveraging of foreign trade through technological modernization of exports may work toward skill formation in less developed economies with technological dualism, informalization, and disguised unemployment. Besides, this chapter brings to glare how benefit of such modernization toward skill development stands out to be weighed against a potential worsening of distributive justice in terms of rise in wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers. Moreover, this chapter seeks to overhaul the implication of liberalization of labor market in terms of dilution of minimum wage standard for human development. Thus, the bottom line is that comes up here forth that export modernization in name of improving external competitiveness and thereof attaining effective trade openness can promote skilled human but only risking an exacerbation of wage inequality.

The pandemic slowed down most industries globally, but health care maintained its steady growth, and for Pharma, it was a boom. Considering the comparatively better economic condition of India than other developed countries post-COVID-19, and the Russia–Ukraine war, multinational manufacturers of medical equipment companies are focusing on securing the maximum share of wallets from India through partnerships with health care service providers. The study tried to analyze the impact of the strategic key account management (KAM) partnership between multinational medical technology (MedTech) companies and health care service providers, from a global perspective. For the study, primary data were collected through questionnaires survey, and secondary data through a review of literature. The chi-square was tested using IBM SPSS software, and based on the results, three null hypotheses were rejected and one was accepted. Secondary data reveal that the Indian health care sector is highly competitive from a global perspective which can be observed by Nos of Venture Capital (VC) investment in health care, massive growth in medical tourism, and huge investment by international pharmaceutical companies in India. This partnership will help to develop more clinical packages through a clinical trial in India in a cost-effective way which will drastically reduce the manufacturing cost of high-tech medical equipment giving them an edge in global competition and also improving return on investment (ROI) for the partners.

This chapter is a study of the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues on credit rating in India. It will help issuers, investors, and other market participants understand rating agencies' approach to incorporating the sustainability-related factors in its analysis. This will provide an overall perspective on the considerations that are usually the most important. Under environment considerations, climate change, waste recycling, air pollutants, and natural capital sustainability can be important factors. Social considerations are becoming more and more important among investors and consumers and are raising awareness about prosperous and failing communities. Moreover, COVID-19 pandemic has further highlighted the need for redirecting capital flows toward sustainable activities, making our economy and society more resilient against shocks. Governance factors primarily involve the corporate governance practices prevalent in the entity reflecting the different rights and responsibilities among its different stakeholders management, board of directors, employees, lenders, shareholders, customers, and suppliers. It also encompasses the corporate's business conduct and practices related to transparency and disclosure. This chapter will focus on the contemporary issues of including ESG in credit rating and what are the probable impacts of doing the same.

With favorable rating, companies can access international debt market easily. Moreover a favorable sovereign rating is beneficial for the overall economy of a country as better rating enables the government of the country to access the international debt market. Even capital allocation by foreign institutional investors increases which is beneficial for the equity market too.