Post-compulsory schooling of youth in Turkey: a case of pro-cyclical enrollment

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the effect of business cycles on school enrollment in Turkey. During recessions, school enrollment might increase as opportunity cost of schooling declines, yet it might also decrease because of reduced income households have for education. Which effect dominates depends on the context. We empirically explore this in a context displaying canonical features of developing countries.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey data for a period covering the Great Recession, we estimate the effect of unemployment rate separately for enrollments in general and vocational high schools and in undergraduate programs. To understand the cyclicality, we use a probit model with the regional and time variations in unemployment rates. We also build a simple theoretical model of work-schooling choice to interpret the findings.

Findings

We find that the likelihood of enrolling in general high schools and undergraduate programs declines with higher adult unemployment rates, but the likelihood of enrollment in vocational high schools increases. Confronting these empirical findings with the theoretical model suggests that the major factor in enrollment cyclicality in Turkey is how parental resources allocated to education change during recessions by schooling type.

Originality/value

Our finding of pro-cyclical enrollment in academically oriented programs is in contrast with counter-cyclicality documented for similar programs in developed countries, which highlights the importance of income related factors in developing-country contexts. Our heterogeneous findings for general and vocational high schools are also novel.

Citation

Demirci, M. and Poyraz, M. (2024), "Post-compulsory schooling of youth in Turkey: a case of pro-cyclical enrollment", International Journal of Manpower, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJM-09-2023-0527