Environmental, Social, and Governance Perspectives on Economic Development in Asia: Volume 29A

Sufficiently persistent rise in nominal interest increases inflation rate in short-run. This short-run comovement of nominal interest rate and inflation rate is known as Neo-Fisherianism. This chapter proposes a policy based on Neo-Fisherianism to escape Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) using a textbook Forward Looking New Keynesian Model. I have shown that proposed policy with properly chosen inflation target and persistence can stimulate economy and escape ZLB by raising nominal interest rate. I have also shown that the proposed policy is robust to varying degrees of price stickiness.

Significant evidence in the literature points to money demand instability and therefore inaccurate forecasting. In view of this issue, this chapter seeks to use a method, innovative for money demand literature, that is, the machine learning model to predict money demand. Specifically, this chapter uses Random Forest Regression to predict money demand using monthly data in the Indian context over the period April-1996 to December-2018 using the variables usually used in literature. The chapter finds that in money demand prediction, the Random Forest Regression performs fairly well. The results are also compared to traditional models and it is found that the Random Forest Regression model has the potential to enhance the prediction of money demand over what traditional models predicts.

One of the most significant changes in monetary economics at the beginning of the twenty-first century has been the virtual disappearance of what was once a dominant focus, the role of money in monetary policy, and parallelly, the disappearance of the liquidity preference-money supply (LM) curve. Economists used to consider monetary policy with the help of the LM curve as part of the analytical framework which captures the demand for money. However, the workhorse model of modern monetary theory and policy, the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework, only comprises the dynamic investment-savings (IS) curve, the New Keynesian (NK) Phillips curve, and a monetary policy rule. The monetary policy rule is generally known as the Taylor rule. It relates the nominal interest rate to the output-gaps and inflation-gaps, but typically not to either the quantity or the growth rate of money. This change in the modern monetary model reflects how the central banks make monetary policy now. This study provides a detailed discussion on the role of money in monetary policy formulation in the context of the NK and the New Monetarist perspectives. The pros and cons of abandonment of money or the LM curve from monetary policy models have been discussed in detail.

This chapter examines the dynamic linkages between the returns of Bitcoin, gold, and oil by using daily closing price data between July 17, 2010 and January 8, 2021. This study applies the diagonal BEKK–GARCH model for the purpose of analyzing a volatility spillover of variables in positive or negative ways. The empirical results show that the lagged returns inversely affect their current returns in oil. Based on the return spillovers between Bitcoin and gold, the empirical results indicate a unidirectional return spillover from Bitcoin to gold. Moreover, the authors found a unidirectional return transmission is observed from oil to Bitcoin, implying that oil returns are useful in forecasting Bitcoin returns. These findings are not only valuable for understanding of the interrelationships between the returns of Bitcoin, gold, and oil, but they are also of great interest to portfolio managers, investors, and investment funds that are actively dealing in Bitcoin, gold, and oil.

Investors have done sin stocks exclusion in the portfolio as negative screening of socially responsible investment. The impact of sin stock exclusion has brought different results for an investment portfolio; therefore, the investment manager fully decided on sin stocks investment. This research observes the relationship between sin stock proportion and fund managers’ education background. An investment manager’s educational background influences both financial performance and socially responsible behavior. Equity funds are chosen since they made up most of the Indonesian investment market. Proportion is used as a calculation of investment managers’ characteristics. The fixed effect model is applied in the panel data regression method. The study finds a significant negative relationship between sin stock proportion in asset allocation and investment managers’ education level. The research contributes to the literature on sin stocks in Indonesia concerning investment managers’ education background and among the first that observe all holdings in financial reports.

Empirical evidence shows that banking development has a significant impact on macro-level economic growth through the finance-growth nexus and also highlights the prominent effect of development on local economy and household welfare, particularly in developing countries with restricted access to financial systems. The authors investigated the role of local banking development in affecting household welfare in Thailand which is a modest degree of financial access compare to other countries. The authors focus on the development of the banking sector in four dimensions, including financial depth, financial stability, financial efficiency and financial inclusion, and its impact on household welfare using the generalized method of moments approach to address the endogeneity problem. The authors employ biennial household welfare data from the National Statistical Office survey from 2007 to 2019 which covers all provinces in Thailand. The findings suggest that each type of banking development significantly affects household income and consumption in Thailand, although in different ways. Financial depth decreases income and consumption expenditure, while financial inclusion increases income and consumption expenditure (level effect). However, there are insignificant impacts on volatility of household income and consumption (volatility effect). Our findings prove that the implementation of policies to promote banking development either promote or decrease household welfare. This study can provide insight on policy impact and assist policymakers in considering the adoption of banking development policies to promote growth of the local economy, while at the same time aiming to reduce welfare inequality.

Financial literacy can affect well-being. This chapter aims to assess financial literacy of farmers in Khon Kaen, Thailand. The chapter investigates the relationship between it and the well-being of farmers. Data were collected from 354 farmers in the northeast of Thailand. The analysis adopts descriptive statistics and inferential statistics to test the Least Significant Difference as well as using multiple regression analysis. The results show that financial attitudes had a positive influence on the well-being of farmers, while financial behavior had a negative influence. Financial literacy influences the well-being of farmers differently, depending on personal characteristics such as education level, gender and monthly income.

The study evaluated the interlinkages and diversification opportunities in the context of emerging bond markets from 2007:1 to 2020:5, using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and sub‐period analyses to compare BRIC (2007:1–2010:11) and BRICS (2010:12–2020:5) regimes. As indicated by the breaking unit‐root test, dummies for the global financial crisis and COVID‐19 were incorporated in the analyses. VAR results showed that the Indian bond market responds positively to the previous change in the Chinese bond market during the BRIC era while BRICS bond markets are mostly uninfluenced by prior behavior patterns of one another. These suggested that the diversification opportunity has been increased following the admission of South Africa to the league. In addition, variance decomposition and impulse response provide proofs to suggest that BRICS bond markets are more exogenous and independent compared to what is obtained during the BRIC period. Consequently, the authors concluded that the BRICS bloc has provided greater diversification opportunities for emerging markets’ bondholders in the recent past.

This study examines the volatility of inflation in Indonesia before and during COVID-19, focusing on people’s purchasing power. The high inflation variability makes future price expectations uncertain, creating risks in the long run and uncertainty in wealth redistribution. The ARIMA model was used from January 2005 to June 2020. The results show that the ARMA (0.1) model is suitable for testing inflation volatility in Indonesia. Forecasting results show that inflation for the next six months will still be under pressure due to COVID-19.

Low capital market literacy in Indonesian society is the cause of the low investment value in the capital market. It led to the establishment of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) investment gallery (IG). Its existence as a means of education and socialization is expected to increase capital market inclusion. This study analyzes the impact of the IG’s existence on investment interest in the capital market by taking a sample of West Java as the province with Indonesia’s largest population. The authors find that the public interest in visiting IG increases every year by an average of 38%, this is accompanied by an increase in opening new accounts in the capital market, with an average increase of 48% each year. The statistical tests results show that the greater the number of IGs, the greater the number of transactions in the capital market (p < 0.05). The results of this research can certainly be an input for the IDX to increase the number and activities of IG throughout Indonesia to increase Indonesia’s economy through capital market literacy and inclusion, besides that this research also produces a structured and systematic capital market education model. The research results can also reference countries with developing capital markets to adopt the IDX policies in attracting investors, especially domestic investors.

This study aims to obtain empirical evidence and analyzes factors that are affecting earnings response coefficient (ERC). Manufacturing companies are used in this research, which are listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2016 to 2018. This study used panel data consisting of 114 firm years data. This research is using multiple regression method to examine the effect of independent variable to the dependent variable ERC. The result of this study shows that income smoothing (IS) and systematic risk (SR) have an effect on ERC; while IS, SR, and Firm Growth have an effect on Earnings Announcement; meanwhile, earnings persistence, audit quality, firm size, and leverage have no effect on Earnings Announcement. Implication of the research indicates that investors assess earnings quality of the company for their investment decision. These findings contribute to market reaction on earnings announcement and market-based accounting researches.