Recent Developments in Alternative Finance: Empirical Assessments and Economic Implications: Volume 22

Since the recent global financial crisis began in 2008–2009, there has been strong decline in financial markets and investment, huge losses and bankruptcies that have led to a major financial downturn, and a significant economic recession for most developed and emerging economies. Some economists and financial analysts now consider this crisis to be more harmful in some ways than the Great Depression of 1929. Those economists and analysts point to a number of technical issues and limitations associated with the present financial systems, monetary institution rules, accounting and rating formulas, and investment strategies and choices. To try to overcome the financial downturn and, at the same time, to protect the banking systems and financial markets and to reassure investors, central banks have attempted various solutions, governments have introduced new plans (e.g., the Paulson plan), policymakers have included these topic in their political programs, and several conferences and political summits have been organized to discuss the issues. There have been two prevailing lines of thought. According to one line of thought, the extreme risk associated with speculation in sophisticated financial products, the nature of the credit-banking economic system, the gap between real and financial economies, and the strategic errors of monetary institutions constitute the main sources of the financial crisis.¹ On the other hand, it is now argued that this trend needs to be altered. According to that view, monetary institutions, banking and trading systems, rating agencies, and asset pricing modeling need to be reassessed (Barnett, 2012).

This chapter builds monthly time-series of Divisia monetary aggregates for the Gulf area for the period of June 2004 to December 2011, using area-wide data. We also offer an “economic stability” indicator for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) area by analyzing the dynamics pertaining to certain variables such as the dual price aggregates, aggregate interest rates, and the Divisia aggregate user-cost growth rates. Our findings unfold the superiority of the Divisia indexes over the officially published simple-sum monetary aggregates in monitoring the business cycles. There is also direct evidence on higher economic harmonization between GCC countries – especially in terms of their financial markets and the monetary policy. Monetary policy often uses interest rate rules, when the economy is subject only to technology shocks. In that case, money is nevertheless relevant as an endogenous indicator (Woodford, M. (2003). Interest and prices: Foundations of a theory of monetary policy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.). Properly weighted monetary aggregates provide critical information to policy-makers regarding inside liquidity created by financial intermediaries. In addition, policy rules should include money as well as interest rates, when the economy is subject to monetary shocks as well as technology shocks. The data show narrow aggregates growing while broad aggregates collapsed following the financial crises. This information clearly signals problems with the financial system's ability to create liquidity during the crises.

Purpose – The aim of this chapter is to analyze the relationship between the government bond market and real GDP growth for 16 euro zone countries.

Methodology/approach – To this end, we apply a Granger causality/Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) over the period 2001–2011 using quarterly data.

Findings – Our results support evidence for (i) the supply-leading channel for five euro zone economies: Portugal, Finland, Italy, Greece, and France; (ii) the demand-leading channel for Greece and Slovenia; and (iii) the interdependence channel only for Greece.

Originality/value of chapter – This chapter contributes to the burgeoning literature from three empirical and methodological points of view. First, there is a deep scarcity of empirical researches on causality relationship between financial development through bond market extension and economic growth in the specific case of euro zone using different econometric methods and this chapter tries to fill this gap. Second, the chapter studies the linkages between bond markets and real sector for a larger sample of European Union (EU) countries (16 euro zone economies) and for a more recent time horizon, which takes into account also the recent financial crisis (2001–2011). Third, this chapter show that there is a causality from growth to finance in the case of Greece and Slovenia, while the reverse case, the supply-leading assumption, is supported only for Portugal, Finland, Italy, Greece, and France.

Purpose – This chapter studies a two-country model in which firms have the opportunity to invest directly both in home and foreign activities while operating in the context of imperfectly competitive markets for final goods and services. The model is an extension of Choi (1989).

Methodology approach – The firm is assumed to maximize the expected utility derived from the sequence of present and future levels of wealth, subject to budget constraint. We apply the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman approach.

Findings – In this chapter we show that the degree of imperfect competition may be different in the two countries and measured by the elasticity of the demand functions. In this model, we derive the optimal proportion of foreign investment, which is divided into two ratios. The first ratio is a hedging position. The second one is a speculative position.

Originality – Our model shows the role of alternative finance in the presence of differences between investment in two cases, namely, the case of market competition and the case of no market imperfections. This effect is shown by investment proportion and asset pricing relation.

Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to assess the role of the wealth-to-income ratio in forecasting housing risk premium.

Methodology/approach – To investigate this issue, the chapter uses the residuals of the trend relationship among asset wealth and labor income to predict future real housing returns. It shows that deviations of asset wealth from its cointegrating relationship with labor income, wy, track time-variation in expected housing returns.

Findings – Using data for a set of industrialized countries, this chapter finds that if agents are hit by a shock that generates a fall in the wealth-to-income ratio, they will demand (i) a higher housing risk premium when housing assets are complements of financial assets and (ii) a lower housing risk premium when housing assets are substitutes of financial assets.

Originality/value of chapter – The findings of this chapter are novel in the field of alternative finance and, in particular, durable (housing) finance. Indeed, they build on a representative agent's theoretical model to infer about the degree of substitution or complementarity between financial and housing assets, which, in turn, can be useful at developing investment strategies for hedging against the risk of unfavorable housing fluctuations. Additionally, they open a new research avenue for understanding the determinants of housing risk premium by linking the dynamics of asset wealth and labor income with the behavior of future housing returns.

Purpose – This chapter aims to show the similarities and differences that can be found in the destiny of cooperative banks and mutual insurance companies; these two industries, for reasons both similar and specific, are now “at a crossroads.” To reinforce this, we begin by tracing the history of cooperative banks and mutual insurance companies to better inform the future. Cooperative banks and mutual insurance gradually secularized and out of corporatism have patiently built-in different ways depending on the network as opposed to companies.

Results – This chapter will pursue these observations by identifying the impacts of recent crises in shaping business models by questioning a central issue which is that the trap values meet performance requirements in a fierce competition. Then, this chapter will end with the discussion on the main challenges faced by the mutual sphere; «She» should be replaced by «it». Could it exert a role in the crisis?

This chapter attempts to offer a clearer look at the historical roots of the founding of mutualist finance. Without denying that the various forms of financial mutualism may have legal and organizational roots in ancient times, the author considers what, for contemporary mutualist banks, may constitute the soul.

In its first part, the document presents the individual constructions that existed in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, in a context in which economic development and the industrial revolution banished the rules and standards of the former society. It refers to Utopian socialisms as opposed to the scientific solutions proposed for a new social organization and to the new solidarism according to Léon Bourgeois. Christian sources are also called to mind with social Christianity (Protestant) and social Catholicism until the birth of the social doctrine of the Church.

This frenzy of ideas as well as the confrontation with reality led to the birth, in Germany, of the first experiments with alternative finance. This is the subject of the second part of this chapter, which then develops the bank mutualism created by the founding fathers, F.W. Raiffeisen and H. Schulze-Delitzsch.

The historical description of the creation of mutualist banks brings up two major problems when talking about the “other finance”: the interest and activity of the bank. Is an ethical finance capable of proposing a credible alternative? This is a question that needs to be answered in the light of history.

This chapter attempts, more than 150 years after the fact, to demonstrate the ponderous presence of the question and the permanence of the founding ideas in order to comprehend the facts and propose ideas for analysis and construction of an “other finance.”

Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to show that cooperative banks’ values and finalities are not identical to capitalist banks, which are solely geared toward the maximization of short-term financial returns.

The idea that has been widely trumpeted since the beginning of the cooperative movement is profoundly “democratic” due to the fact that it is based on the idea of one person=one vote and because the concept of “collective property” remains topical to this day.

This raises questions as to the best way of conceptualizing the fact that some executives of banking institutions operating in the social economy have in recent years prioritized the development of growth strategies whose only goal is to constantly increase their power and adopt the same ultimate goals as capitalist banks do.

Results – This chapter highlights the reasons for cooperative banks’ deviations and suggests a return to the original mindset of the social and solidarity ideal. It specifies what the terms “market” and “competition” refer to and also suggests a reshaping of two categories derived from neoclassical thinking: “free and self-determined individuals” and “enterprise.” Lastly, it identifies the institutional conditions underlying the generalization of cooperative finance so this is no longer viewed as something marginal or isolated.

Purpose – The aim of this chapter is to analyse consequences of the consideration of ethical principles in the financial decisions process of banks. More specifically, we study how the consideration of shariah principles could affect the capital structure of Islamic banks (IBs).

Design/methodology/approach – First, we apply the classical concepts and theories of capital structure (trade-off theory, pecking order theory, agency theory) in the specific context of IBs. Then, through a literature review, we propose some expected determinants of the capital structure of IBs.

Findings – Our theoretical analysis reveals that the trade-off theory is more suitable for IBs. Moreover, in Islamic institutions, information asymmetry and agency conflicts should be less important than in their conventional counterparts. However, our analysis does not allow us to conclude on the optimal combination of equity and non-equity financing.

Research limitations – In this study, we have not constructed a new capital structure theory specific to IBs but we apply the classical concepts and theories (information asymmetry, agency theory, trade-off theory, pecking order theory) to the Islamic context.

Originality/value – The study contributes to both the capital structure and the Islamic finance literature. There are few studies comparing IBs to conventional banks’ capital structure. Our chapter is the first, to our knowledge, which propose to theoretically explain the observed difference between these two categories of banks.

Purpose – This chapter shows that Islamic finance does not aim at substituting the conventional financial system, rather it can be used to reform it. It can thus indirectly contribute to its survival.

Methodology/Approach – We first present the peculiarities of the Islamic financial model. We then investigate its prospects: coexistence, integration, substitution? It is the investigation of the strategy and activities of the Islamic banks that allows to address this issue.

Findings – We find that the deliberate strategy is essentially to compete with conventional banks. Consequently, there is a willingness to be part of the conventional system. The study of the Islamic financial system allows to conclude that their emergence serves a purpose. The Islamic financial principles provide a benchmark for improving and reforming the conventional system.

Originality/Value of Paper – The main contribution is to provide a clear answer to the future of Islamic finance, and to present the contribution of Islamic finance to renewal of financial and economic thought.

The market for solidarity employee savings remains under most people's radar in France, but targeting a new audience of employee savers it has progressed steadily in recent years. The solidarity employee savings works on the same mechanisms of employee savings ‘classic’, while allowing employees, through a part of their investments, to help solidarity activities. Since 1 January 2010, it is mandatory that French employees be offered a solidarity savings fund in which they can invest assorted company savings plans (French acronym ‘PEE’ for plans épargne entreprise) or group retirement savings plans (French acronym ‘PERCO’ for plan épargne retraite collective). In this way, French legislators have created a wealth of around 12.3 million employees in solidarity employee savings, hence the value of understanding this emerging phenomenon and ascertaining its compatibility with employee savings.

Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to investigate the relationship between emotion and European energy forward prices of oil, gas, coal and electricity during normal times and periods of extreme price movements.

Methodology/Approach – We use a biorhythm approach characterized by the seasonal affective disorder (SAD) variable to study the impact of emotion on energy markets. Normal times and periods of extreme price movements are approximated by OLS and quantile estimations, respectively.

Findings – We use European energy forward prices of oil, gas, coal, and electricity. European equity future index (Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50) and euro/dollar US exchange rate are used as control variables for economic and financial environment. Estimating OLS and quantile regressions, we find that seasonal patterns have a significant impact during extreme volatility periods only. Further investigations reveal that the SAD effect is significant during periods of price decrease, but insignificant during price increase times. The out-of-sample predictive ability properties show that our “SAD model” outperforms significantly the pure “macroeconomic” one.

Originality/Value of chapter – This topic is novel in energy finance since I use psychological background theory to understand energy price dynamics. I illustrate the relevance of our approach by comparing the out-of-sample predictive ability of our model against macroeconomic one. My results could be considered to improve energy porfolio allocation.

Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to challenge the common idea that microfinance, which is part of alternative finance, was created by Professor Muhammad Yunus, Nobel Peace Prize laureate in 2006. This chapter aims to outline past initiatives which can be compared to contemporary microcredit practice.

Methodology/Approach – In this chapter we look at historical aspects of finance and all kinds of alternative finance in order to demonstrate that microcredit existed in an archaic form long before Professor Yunus's theorization.

Findings – We find that microcredit has barely always existed in different forms, but has benefited from technic innovations to get a wider outreach.

Originality/Value of chapter – These findings are novel since nobody evoked this clearly before.

Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to estimate non-Gaussian distributions by means of Johnson distributions. An empirical illustration on hedge fund returns is detailed.

Methodology/approach – To fit non-Gaussian distributions, the chapter introduces the family of Johnson distributions and its general extensions. We use both parametric and non-parametric approaches. In a first step, we analyze the serial correlation of our sample of hedge fund returns and unsmooth the series to correct the correlations. Then, we estimate the distribution by the standard Johnson system of laws. Finally, we search for a more general distribution of Johnson type, using a non-parametric approach.

Findings – We use data from the indexes Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund (CSFB/Tremont) provided by Credit Suisse. For the parametric approach, we find that the SU Johnson distribution is the most appropriate, except for the Managed Futures. For the non-parametric approach, we determine the best polynomial approximation of the function characterizing the transformation from the initial Gaussian law to the generalized Johnson distribution.

Originality/value of chapter – These findings are novel since we use an extension of the Johnson distributions to better fit non-Gaussian distributions, in particular in the case of hedge fund returns. We illustrate the power of this methodology that can be further developed in the multidimensional case.

Purpose – This research pinpoints the limitations of conventional models for evaluating the performance of hedge funds and attempts to provide a new framework for modeling the dynamics of risk structures of hedge funds.

Methodology/approach – This chapter aims to explore how the systematic risk exposures of hedge funds vary over time and depend on exogenous variables that managers are supposed to use in their dynamic investment strategies. To achieve this, we used a Bayesian time-varying CAPM-based beta model within a state space technology.

Findings – The results showed that the volatility, term spread rate, and shocks in liquidity influence significantly on the time variation of hedge funds. Besides, the dynamics of beta indicates that the transmission channels of systematic risk are mainly the leverage levels of hedge funds and liquidity shocks.

Originality/value of chapter – These results are original because they help to explain how expected and unexpected hedge fund returns are correlated with the systematic risk factors via the beta dynamics.

Purpose – This chapter aimed to investigate hedge funds market risk. One aims to go further the traditional measures of risk that underestimates it by introducing a more appropriate method to hedge funds. One demonstrates that daily hedge fund return distributions are asymmetric and leptokurtic. Furthermore, volatility clustering phenomenon and the existence of ARCH effects demonstrate that hedge funds volatility varies through time. These features suggest the modelisation of their volatility using symmetric (GARCH) and asymmetric (EGARCH and TGARCH) models used to evaluate a 1-day-ahead value at risk (VaR).

Methodology/Approach – The conditional variances were estimated under the assumption that residuals t follow the normal and the student law. The knowledge of the conditional variance was used to forecast 1-day-ahead VaR. The estimations are compared with the Gaussian, the student and the modified VaR. To sum up, 12 VaRs are computed; those based on standard deviation and computed with normal, student and cornish fisher quantile and those based on conditional volatility models (GARCH, TGARCH and EGARCH) computed with the same quantiles.

Findings – The results demonstrate that VaR models based on normal quantile underestimate risk while those based on student and cornish fisher quantiles seem to be more relevant measurements. GARCH-type VaRs are very sensitive to changes in the return process. Back-testing results show that the choice of the model used to forecast volatility has an importance. Indeed, the VaR based on standard deviation is not relevant to measure hedge funds risks as it fails the appropriate tests. On the opposite side, GARCH-, TGARCH- and EGARCH-type VaRs are accurate as they pass most of the time successfully the back-testing tests. But, the quantile used has a more significant impact on the relevance of the VaR models considered. GARCH-type VaR computed with the student and especially cornish fisher quantiles lead to better results, which is consistent with Monteiro (2004) and Pochon and Teïletche (2006).

Originality/Value of chapter – A large set of GARCH-type models are considered to estimate hedge funds volatility leading to numerous evaluation of VaRs. These estimations are very helpful. Indeed, public savings under institutional investors management then delegate to hedge funds are concerned. Therefore, an adequate risk management is required. Another contribution of this chapter is the use of daily data to measure all hedge fund strategies risks.