Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Poland

Authors investigate the key factors contributing to Poland's economic growth since 1989, including capital accumulation, technological progress, labour force and productivity and European integration.

Through the analysis of macroeconomic indicators, comparison with selected countries and review of relevant literature and policies, authors aim to offer a comprehensive understanding of Poland's growth story, providing valuable insights for informed policy recommendations and fostering sustainable economic development.

This study utilises a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative analysis of macroeconomic indicators with qualitative examination of literature, policy documents and expert opinions. This comprehensive analysis allows us to assess Poland's economic growth, compare its performance with selected countries and identify underlying factors driving growth and potential future challenges.

Understanding the drivers of Poland's growth is essential for effective policy formulation and promoting sustainable development, while acknowledging the potential threats to maintaining its high growth rate such as modest innovation performance, population ageing, growing public debt and reliance on coal-based energy. The findings provide valuable insights into Poland's economic trajectory and form the basis for informed policy recommendations.

At the beginning of the 1990s, the Polish economic situation was extremely difficult: high public debt, shortages, high inflation and more than 8,000 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) waiting to be restructured and/or privatised; along with a GDP per capita lower than in Ukraine.

This chapter provides an overview of the Polish economic transition, and presents the results of this process, taking into account four aspects of the changes, i.e. stabilisation, liberalisation, institutional reforms and privatisation. Special attention is paid to intentionally unfinished privatisation and the still significant role of state-owned enterprises, which have remained important economic agents.

Critical analyses were made of the literature dedicated to the economic transition and of the role and characteristics of state-owned enterprises. Empirical evidence is drawn from original datasets about the scale of SOEs in the contemporary economy and rotations in management and supervisory boards in Polish joint-stock companies.

Despite the unfavourable initial conditions, Poland soon emerged as a leader in economic growth, successfully stabilising, liberalising and privatising its economy. The institutional foundations of a democratic market economy were consistently built, and the applications for membership in the OECD, the EU and NATO were an important driver of institutional reforms. In terms of state institutions, political and economic freedom and quality of governance, Poland is more similar to the G7 countries than to the other post-socialist countries, though the need to maintain high-quality state institutions is still a priority. The significant share of SOE is regarded as a challenge of the Polish economy because state-owned enterprises are an object of rent-seeking by politicians and political parties.

EU countries, including those in Central and Eastern Europe, seem to have increasingly similar economies, allowing for the study of real convergence as a process of equalising income levels (measured by GDP per capita). Studies of income convergence in the European Union also have a regional dimension and often focus on convergence at the NUTS2 or NUTS3 regional level. The level of development and income in Polish regions differ significantly. The regional policy implemented at the national and EU level focuses on reducing these differences.

The main aim of the chapter is to analyse the income convergence process among regions in Poland and verify the effectiveness of regional policy implemented at the national and EU level.

The study uses Barro type regression for panel data, log t convergence test, and club clustering algorithm introduced by Phillips and Sul to identify patterns of club convergence in Polish regions. The data used for the study is the Local Data Bank provided by Statistics Poland, which includes gross domestic product per capita at the NUTS-3 level for 73 Polish regions over the period of 2000–2020.

The results of the study indicate a very weak convergence process for all Polish NUTS-3 regions and suggest a club convergence. The club convergence is characterised by regions with similar income levels clustering together. The regional distribution of clubs is similar to the regional distribution of income. The study's findings provide important insights into the effectiveness of regional policy in Poland and suggest that policymakers need to focus on policies that promote catch-up growth in less developed regions. The study also highlights the importance of supporting the most developed regions in the country as they can play a crucial role in driving the country's economic growth and prosperity.

The transformation towards the Green Economy (GE) in Poland is a relatively new topic for researchers, policymakers and business practitioners. A comprehensive picture of the shift towards the GE can help mentioned groups translate theoretical assumptions into practice.

This chapter presents the assessment of Poland's shift towards the GE, measured by the proposed Green Transformation Index (GTI).

The set of GE indicators was elaborated in Structured Literature Review (SLR) variation method. Then, this set of indicators was compared with the Statistics Poland (GUS) secondary data and employed in the taxonometric calculation methods.

In the result, the GTI for the Polish economy was proposed and calculated between 2007 and 2020. The GTI allowed us to present a dynamic analysis of the transformation towards GE in Poland.

The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine are a real example of how uncertainty can trigger radical changes in the socio-economic system on a macro and micro scale. The indicated events contributed to the increase in the level of uncertainty, and its effects appeared in the real conditions of the functioning of international communities.

The purpose of the chapter is to determine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine on the situation of Polish consumers and the resulting behaviour in the context of business–consumer relations.

This goal was achieved through literature studies, analysis of changes in selected indicators of the economic situation and analysis of basic variables determining the relationships between consumers and suppliers.

The presented research results allow us to conclude that both the pandemic and war had an impact not only on the economic indicators but also the financial standing of households. We are seeing an increase in the differences between the nominal and real value of these incomes. Inflation is on the rise, forcing households to change their spending structure and look for savings. Of course, there have been and will be companies that do not have to be significantly affected by the effects of these events. In this group, companies related to the provision of IT infrastructure and specialising in establishing multidimensional relationships in the digital space should be pointed out.

Applying mitigation measures during the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in ‘locking down’ of economies, and disrupted agri-food markets worldwide. Income losses and food price increases negatively affected food security. The ‘stay-at-home’ policy led some households towards a positive shift in eating habits and maintaining these changes could contribute to better nutrition. The Russia–Ukraine war and soaring energy and food prices contributes further to the pressure on the global food system and urgency to consider longer term resilience capacities of national food systems.

The aim of the chapter is to identify and review food security challenges that governments and societies have faced during the COVID-19 crisis and beyond, with specific emphasis on Poland.

The methodological approach was to undertake a narrative literature review and to analyse a number of indicators relating to food security at the national level. These were quantified using data from Economist Impact, the World Bank, the European Commission, FAOSTAT and Statistics Poland.

The 2019–2022 Global Food Security Index for Poland remained quite stable, but the number of food insecure people increased significantly. Hence, urgent government measures are needed to ensure food security for all. Since 2021, high food inflation has reduced food affordability and is expected to remain high due to the Russia-Ukraine war, market pressures on energy prices and climate-related weather conditions. Greater food self-sufficiency in Poland is a key strategy to build up the resilience of the national food system.

The monetary policy implementation and corporate investment are closely intertwined. The aim of modern monetary policy is to mitigate economic fluctuations and stabilise economic growth. One of the ways of influencing the real economy is influencing the level of investment by enterprises.

This chapter provides evidence on how monetary policy affected corporate investment in Poland between 1Q 2000 and 3Q 2022. We investigate the impact of Polish monetary policy on investment outlays in contexts of high uncertainty.

Using the correlation analysis and the regression model, we show the relation between the monetary policy and the investment outlays of Polish enterprises. We used the least squares method as the most popular in linear model estimation. The evaluation includes model fit, independent variable significance and random component, i.e. constancy of variance, autocorrelation, alignment with normal distribution, along with Fisher–Snedecor test and Breusch–Pagan test.

We find that Polish enterprises are responsive to changes in monetary policy. Hence, the corporate investment level is correlated with the effects of monetary policy (especially with the decision on the central bank's basic interest rate changes). We found evidence that QE policy has a positive impact on Polish investment outlays. The corporate investment in Poland is positively affected by respective monetary policies through Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) reference rate, inflation, corporate loans, weighted average interest rate on corporate loans.

Fiscal and monetary policies are essential to the development of a capital market. In this chapter, authors present how fiscal and monetary policy in Poland evolved and adjusted to economic challenges in 1998–2022. It is worth noticing that the Polish economy and financial market have been built from scratch after 45 years of socialism. Hence, it is scientifically interesting to study the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, and capital market in a developing country, and in a relatively young economy.

Both – the macroeconomic policy mix and development of the capital market – are the subject of analysis how fiscal and monetary policy impacted the capital market. As so the main aim of the chapter is the assessment of the nexus and dependencies between fiscal and monetary policy and the capital market.

In the chapter, multiple linear regression was used for each dependent variable to discover which monetary and fiscal policy parameters significantly predicted selected variables describing the development of the capital market in Poland. Fiscal and monetary policy variables served as descriptors explaining capital market parameters in seven separate models.

Multiple regression models explain 77.3%–95.4% of the volatility of the capital market characteristics. The level of the central bank's reference rate is a variable that influences the capital market the most. In six out of seven models, the interest rate was a significant parameter. The development of the capital market was accompanied by a higher tax-to-GDP ratio. At the same time, a strong negative impact of the tax-to-GDP increase was noticed in domestic institutional investors' stock trading.

Innovation policy and innovation systems undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the path of economic development of contemporary economies. A particularly interesting context for studying the evolution of this area is offered by post-transition economies which had to undergo fundamental structural changes and face the global competition where the advances in knowledge and technological progress ultimately decide between success or failure.

The chapter aims to portray and evaluate the key developments in the innovation policy and national innovation system of Poland – one of the largest and most successful post-transition economies.

The methodological framework of the study involves a descriptive analysis of the major changes in the regulatory and institutional settings as well as an analysis of statistical data on the crucial dimensions of Poland's innovation policy and innovation system over the period 2000–2021. Additionally, the overall effects of the policy have been assessed using the data from the European Innovation Scoreboard (over 2015–2022) and the Global Innovation Index (over 2008–2022).

The findings suggest that the significant changes in Poland's innovation policy and innovation system frameworks introduced since the mid-2000s have resulted in a dynamic increase in the intensity of R&D efforts, especially in the business enterprise sector, allowing to narrow the structural gaps dividing the country from more advanced economies and markedly improve its overall research and innovative performance. A key role in this process has been played by the direct and indirect government support for innovative activities.

There are many indications that government policymakers and supporters of large-scale nuclear expansion in Poland have not seriously grappled with arguments critical of this direction of the country's power development. Instead, there is a mood of euphoric elation in these circles without even an attempt to reflect on why this kind of nuclear power is in a state of perennial crisis and lack of development prospects in Western countries.

The purpose of this chapter is to consider from an economic perspective the potential role of nuclear power in decarbonising the Polish power sector. It needs to answer two questions: why not develop large-scale nuclear power and why small modular reactors (SMRs) can be a better alternative for decarbonisation of the Polish power sector.

The primary research method used in the preparation of this chapter is a critical analysis and synthesis of the literature on the subject.

A technological revolution will offer electricity customers increasingly better alternatives. Among them there is also technology of SMRs which seems to be much less risky option in terms of its compatibility with the direction of the power sector's evolution as well as cost of sectors’ decarbonisation.

Polish agriculture is one of the main sectors of the national economy that, under the influence of political transformations and European integration, is subject to measures stimulating its development. The instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) have been an important supporting stimulus.

This chapter aims to evaluate the significance of the common agricultural policy to the growth and development of agriculture and to structural transformations therein triggered primarily by the influx of additional CAP funds.

The agricultural sector was examined together with its selected characteristics in the context of CAP instruments' impact after 2004. Data included the streams of funding for Polish agriculture and indicators illustrating changes in structural features, economic performance and productivity of production factors. The indicators included changes in the number, structure and potential of farmsteads, changes in the level of employment in agriculture, this sector's share in total gross value added, profitability of farmsteads, capital expenditure level and changes in labour and land profitability compared with changes in the level of employment and agricultural production intensity. They were calculated based on data from EUROSTAT, Statistics Poland and Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN).

The outcomes confirm that common agricultural policy has contributed to create development processes in Polish agriculture. Changes in the sector affected structural characteristics, production factors productivity and the income of agricultural producers. Since Poland joined the European Union (EU), the percentage of agricultural workers declined by 8.4 p.p. and the number of farms decreased by nearly 30%. These changes were accompanied by a nearly twofold increase in agricultural labour productivity, 50% increase in land productivity and the profitability of land increased by 43%.

The comparison between economic growth and the character of monetary policy is one of the most frequently studied issues in policymaking. However, the number of studies incorporating a dynamic time warping approach to analyse the similarity of macroeconomic variables is relatively small.

The study aims at assessing the mutual similarity among various variables representing the financial sector (including the monetary policy by the central bank) and the real sector (e.g. economic growth, industrial production, household consumption expenditure), as well as cross-similarity between both sectors.

The analysis is based on the dynamic time warping (DTW) method, which allows for capturing various dimensions of changes of considered variables. This method is almost non-existent in the literature to compare financial and economic time series. The application of this method constitutes the main area of value added of the research. The analysis includes five variables representing the financial sector and five from the real sector. The study covers four countries: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania and the 2010–2022 period (quarterly data).

The results show that variables representing the financial sector, including those reflecting monetary policy, are weakly correlated with each other, whereas the variables representing the real economy have a solid mutual similarity. As regards individual variables, for example, GDP fluctuations show relatively substantial similarity to ROE fluctuations – especially in Czechia and Hungary. In the case of Hungary and Romania, CAR fluctuations are consistent with GDP fluctuations. In the case of Poland and Hungary, there is a relatively strong similarity between the economy's monetisation and economic growth. Comparing the individual countries, two clusters of countries can be identified. One cluster includes Poland and Czechia, while another covers Hungary and Romania.

This chapter deals with the issue of the role of imitation and innovation in explaining economic growth in the context of the Polish economy, taking the endogenous growth theory and the technology catch-up theory as guidelines. This issue is extremely important as Poland faces the urgent need to reduce productivity gap through investments in R&D and/or the absorption of foreign technologies.

The aim of this chapter is to find the effects of innovation and imitation on economic performance of Poland and shed light on possible outcome differences between these two kinds of activities.

The empirical analysis uses data on innovation, imitation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Polish economy between 2005 and 2021, collected from a few statistical sources. We apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to find the impact of innovation and imitation on economic growth.

The results suggest that R&D investments positively affect economic performance of the Polish economy, whereas the impact of imitation activities on GDP appears to be insignificant.

This chapter describes the present state and the trends in the Polish information and communications technology (ICT) sector, which today is considered to be one of the most progressively developing part of the national economy. Special attention is given to economic background, ICT employment and governmental policy. Some forecasts for future development were also proposed.

The purpose of this chapter is to present the background, dynamics and future trends in the Polish ICT sector.

The statistical data (Statistics Poland, Eurostat), market reports and scientific articles were analysed. Microsoft Excel and QGIS software was used to analyse the data and visualise the results.

Polish ICT market has stable fundaments, good infrastructure, qualified workers and a good location. Despite the developed infrastructure, e-commerce and e-administration usage is relatively low compared to the average level of EU27. The Polish ICT market specialises in software implementation, IT outsourcing and computer game development. The Polish ICT market development is associated with cloud computing, outsourcing, e-commerce, cybersecurity, big data, artificial intelligence (AI) and Industry 4.0. Poland is also in the top 10 countries for IT outsourcing worldwide, with the leading ICT centers in Warsaw, Cracow and Wrocław.

The growth of the ICT sector was (is) supported also by central programmes and government strategies: Operational Programme Digital Poland, Digital Competence Development Program and Cybersecurity Strategy. In the last 2 years, the development of ICT was also boosted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Market reports and forecasts show that the sector's future development will be related to artificial intelligence, Industry 4.0 and data analytics and financed by private business and central government contracts. The increase in remote work will also be significant.

The last three decades have witnessed strong development of global value chains (GVCs). Also, the Polish economy developed international production links along with the systemic transformation from the beginning of the 1990s. This led to changes in Poland's participation in GVCs.

The Purpose of the Chapter: The study's primary purpose is to characterise the evolution of Poland's participation in GVCs since the mid-1990s, including its key determinants.

Several research methods were used to achieve the study's goal, including critical literature analysis, statistical data analysis and descriptive methods. To determine Poland's share in the GVCs, the method of estimating domestic and foreign added value was used, which allowed for measuring the scale of production fragmentation and related trade in value-added.

The analysis allowed us to conclude that Poland has increased its share in GVCs, mainly inside the EU. Also, the industrial structure underwent positive changes. The increasing Poland's participation in the GVCs was primarily due to the inflow of FDI-related technology, the transformation of the economic structure, institutional and geographical factors. The improvement in the conditions for the functioning of the Polish economy has been reflected in international competitiveness rankings, where such attributes as geographical location, macroeconomic performance, human capital, market size, technical infrastructure and innovativeness are indicated. On the other hand, however, the tightness of the law, the efficiency of the government and public administration remains a challenge.

Poland generally has a homogeneous society, conservative towards changes and diversity. The corporate culture in Polish companies reflects this mindset, leading to a lack of inclusion on the corporate board. Additionally, many companies may not fully understand the benefits of an inclusive workplace and legal requirements for gender diversity.

The main objective of the study is to provide a better understanding of the attitude of Polish companies towards diversity policies and reveal differences in actual and expected levels of gender diversity in corporate boards. Thus, we examine compliance with the gender diversity guidelines in the corporate governance code.

Using a sample of 367 Polish companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, we study the composition of the management and supervisory boards to check if they meet the expected gender diversity criteria. We also look at companies' explanations for non-compliance with the main principles regarding diversity policy.

We find that the current composition of corporate boards of stock companies in Poland is male-dominated. Women represent only 12.72% and 17.12% of the management board and supervisory board members, respectively, and 68.94% (42.23%) of companies have no women on their management (supervisory) board. Moreover, only a small percentage of companies comply with the principles related to gender diversity. Qualifications, experience and education are pointed out as the most important criteria for decision-making on board appointments, with only 2% of companies applying gender as an additional criterion. The study suggests that larger companies are more likely to implement diversity policies.

Poland was coined a ‘green island’ during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009 with a stable growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while other countries experienced a dramatic drop in the GDP growth. We assumed that this is due to the stronger resilience of Polish economy and Polish companies.

The aim of the research is to identify the companies' stability (resilience) in the crisis situations (especially the GFC and COVID-19 crisis). We also wonder whether corporate resilience is accompanied by the financial flexibility.

We use GDP growth rate and Profitability as the measures of the resilience. Additionally, we include in our research financial flexibility measured by debt and cash ratio as factors affecting corporate resilience. Our research covers the period 2000–2021. Our data refer to three European countries: France and Germany as the leading European countries and Poland as the leader of changes in Central and Eastern Europe.

We found that Polish economy – against German and French – have higher GDP growth and profitability ratio over the 2000–2021 period. These ratios also show lower volatility around the trend. We proved that higher corporate resilience is accompanied by higher financial flexibility of Polish companies.

The entrepreneurship ecosystem is one of the most important elements determining the conditions for the development of modern enterprises. The structure and tools of the system are the subjects of research and analysis by practitioners and researchers dealing with the issues of entrepreneurship. The main objective of these studies is to search for the optimal use of the potential and opportunities of the enterprise sector in relation to current socio-economic problems.

The purpose of the chapter is to present and discuss the possibilities of the impact of the entrepreneurship ecosystem on the development of enterprises in Poland.

The analysis includes directions, support instruments and an assessment of the effectiveness of activities related to supporting entrepreneurship in Poland. To prepare the chapter, a review and analysis of literature, analysis of programs and documents as well as an analysis of statistical data describing the development of entrepreneurship in Poland were used.

Entrepreneurial ecosystems are an essential factor determining the development of entrepreneurship in Poland. There are visible problems related to the implementation of an effective entrepreneurial ecosystem. The experience and adaptation processes of institutions and organisations related to its functioning make the system and its elements work correctly.