Forecasting the fiber penetration based on copper access regulation
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the impact of copper access regulation on broadband household adoption for each technology (xDSL on copper infrastructure, FTTx on fiber infrastructure and cable modem). It provides a forecast of the penetration rate of broadband access for each technology (copper xDSL, fiber, FTTx and cable modem) through 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses an empirical approach using a dataset covering 15 European countries. The dynamic of the adoption path is modeled by a logistic function. Copper access regulation is measured by two variables: copper access charge and copper wholesale access share, i.e. the ratio of copper wholesale access provided by the incumbent to alternative operators out of the total number of copper accesses.
Findings
This paper shows that tough copper access regulation has a negative impact on fiber and cable modem adoption. Low copper prices decrease consumer adoption of other technologies. This reduces their profitability and thus the incentives to invest in alternative platforms.
Practical implications
This paper highlights that an increase in copper access charges or a decrease in copper wholesale access shares could help to achieve the objectives of the Digital Agenda for Europe.
Originality/value
This paper provides an empirical evidence of the impact of the copper access regulation on the fiber and ultra-fast broadband adoption from a dynamic point of view.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
Received 30 September 2013 Revised 30 September 2013 Accepted 18 October 2013. This paper represents the analysis of the author and not necessarily a position of Orange.
Citation
Jeanjean, F. (2014), "Forecasting the fiber penetration based on copper access regulation", info, Vol. 16 No. 1, pp. 17-31. https://doi.org/10.1108/info-09-2013-0049
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2014, Emerald Group Publishing Limited