A Computer Simulation Model for Port Planning

Abstract

Planning the development of ports and harbours involves many complex, technical tasks. Various facility designs must be outlined and analysed. Facility locations must be evaluated and sites selected. Environmental issues must be recognised and the impact of port facilities on the environment must be estimated. Traffic and trade levels must be forecast. Port operating procedures must be evaluated to insure proper facility design. Men, material and capital resources must be inventoried to support the budgeting and economic analysis required. Finally, an economic evaluation must be made of the costs and benefits of the development project. Port planners must often develop plans under economic, social and political pressures. These pressures may not allow the time necessary to evaluate fully all the possible facility designs which could be included in the development plan. The computer model and planning methodology outlined briefly in this paper are designed to facilitate the development process by providing an automated planning framework for the rapid, accurate and thorough analysis of alternative port development plans. This port planning model is centred around a dynamic, stochastic digital computer simulation program. It is dynamic in that port operations may be simulated for any desired length of time; thereby providing in minutes estimates of the results of port operations simulated for years. The model is stochastic in that processes which vary randomly in actual port operations are represented to vary in the same way during the simulation. This added realism in the model increases the accuracy of its results. By properly specifying input data planners may evaluate the effect of alternative development plans on the port's operation; however, its use is not limited to development planning only.

Citation

Lawrence, P.A. (1973), "A Computer Simulation Model for Port Planning", International Journal of Physical Distribution, Vol. 4 No. 1, pp. 26-39. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb014297