$48 + billion expendable launch vehicle market

Citation

(2009), "$48 + billion expendable launch vehicle market", Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, Vol. 81 No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/aeat.2009.12781aaf.003

$48 + billion expendable launch vehicle market

Article Type: Mini features From: Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology: An International Journal, Volume 81, Issue 1

Forecast International is projecting that over the next decade, launch vehicle providers worldwide will produce 636 expendable launch vehicles (ELVs) worth approximately $48 billion. The ELVs to be produced will range in size from the smaller European Vega to the heavy-lift US evolved ELVs.

These are among the findings of FI’s recent analysis, “The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles”. According to the report, governments continue to be the prevailing customer of the launch industry, accounting for 66 per cent of the total global launches in 2007. This trend will continue in the decades to come.

“The anticipated resurgence in demand for both geosynchronous and non-geosynchronous satellite communications capacity and continued substantial government demand indicate that despite razor-thin profit margins, the world market for ELVs is headed for a considerable market upturn”, said John Edwards, Forecast International Senior Analyst and author of the study.

Revenues for commercial launches have risen steadily since 2005, with Europe garnering the lion’s share of the global market. US commercial launch revenues for 2007 were estimated to be $150 million and European revenues were about $840 million, according to FAA statistics.

These are positive indicators for the ELV industry, and Forecast international’s analysis of the world satellite market indicates an increased launch tempo in the near term. A slight rebound in the commercial satellite market seems to be under way, but, as in the past, launch providers will do well by lofting an unprecedented catalogue of military, civil, and scientific spacecraft for operators spanning the globe.

In the USA, the military satellite market is vigorous as it meets the needs of the various transformational efforts under way. There seems to be a never-ending list of programs that are planning launches throughout the decade. United Launch Alliance – a tie up of Lockheed Martin and Boeing’s launch operations – will be the direct beneficiary of the full military satellite manifest in the USA.

“While the level of military satellite production in Europe will remain in sharp contrast to that of the United States, there will still be plenty of contracts out there for the Ariane 5 and the upcoming Vega”, according to Edwards.

The analysis projects that in terms of the countries producing these ELVs, the USA is expected to account for 161 units; Russian, Ukrainian, and Chinese production through 2017 should amount to approximately 306 units. However, even at a nearly double unit output, Russian, Ukrainian, and Chinese value of production will account for $15.9 billion, whereas US production of 145 fewer units is expected to be valued at $17.9 billion. This disparity can be attributed to high-ticket ELVs in the USA, such as the Atlas V, Delta IV, and Ares I. Production coming from India, Japan, and Israel will total approximately 73 units, and Europe is expected to roll out 92 ELVs during the same period.

Details available from: Forecast International, Inc., Tel.: +1 203 426 0800.