Market remains strong for aviation turboprops

Citation

(2005), "Market remains strong for aviation turboprops", Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, Vol. 77 No. 2. https://doi.org/10.1108/aeat.2005.12777baf.008

Market remains strong for aviation turboprops

Market remains strong for aviation turboprops

Keywords: Aircraft engines

The market for turboprop engines is expected to remain strong over the 2004-2013 forecast period, although analysts at Forecast International believe that turbofan engines will rise in popularity at the expense of select segments of the turboprop market, particularly that of regional aircraft in the 50-75-passenger range.

“Turbofans will increase in popularity for aircraft between 50 and 75 seats,” said David Franus, Senior Power Systems Analyst for Forecast International. “However, turboprops will continue to be the aircraft engine- of-choice for many purposes. In most cases, the military will continue to favor turboprops for the high lift they provide, and turboprops are also ideal for most hot-and-high altitude operations as well as transport to rural areas with short runways.”

Much of the recent increase in turbofan use can be attributed to the rise in fractional ownership of business jets, and the increasing number of regional aircraft markets, especially in light of the public's perception of jet aircraft as being superior to turboprop aircraft (in terms of modernity, as well as safety and speed). Companies such as Embraer and Bombardier offer turbofan designs that feature lighter materials and more efficient engines, which in turn offset many of the market advantages of turboprops.

Although proponents of turboprop aircraft believe that the turbofan has captured as much of the market as it ever will, turbofan proponents (particularly manufacturers) claim that, with the exception of cases where runway length is a factor, planes powered by 1,000-shp turboprops would do better to replace their old engines with a state-of-the-art turbofan. However, according to Franus, “As the requirement for larger turboprop engines grows, we can look forward to manufacturers adapting other designs, particularly turbofans, for turboprop variants.”

Turboprops may also face challenges from aviation diesels, or more efficient and reliable piston engines. Nonetheless, Forecast International predicts that during the 2004-2013 time period, the market for turboprop engines will remain strong, with a total of 9,538 engines expected to be produced at a total value of $7.8 billion.

In another new study titled “The World Market for Military Rotorcraft,” Forecast International is predicting that 5,448 military rotorcraft, with an estimated value of $84 billion, will be produced in the 2004-2013 period. This total includes both new-build rotorcraft, as well as major modifications such as the Boeing AH- 64D and the Sikorsky UH-60 M. A total of 1,668 major modifications are forecast, with an estimated value of $14.3 billion.

Forecast International projects that annual military rotorcraft production will increase through most of the 2004- 2013 timeframe. In addition, the value of this production, as measured in constant 2004 US dollars, is also expected to grow through nearly the entire period, with the growth in value of production outpacing the growth in unit production. This is due to an increasing proportion of relatively expensive rotorcraft in the annual mix.

Sikorsky, along with its newly acquired subsidiary Schweizer, is projected to be the market leader both in unit production and production value. The Connecticut company is expected to produce 1,237 military helicopters worth some $20.6 billion. Boeing is predicted to be the second in unit production with 983 rotorcraft produced, and Eurocopter (with subsidiary Australian Aerospace) is third with 554 units. The Eurocopter total does include production by the NH Industries consortium, in which Eurocopter is a leading participant.

In terms of production value, the Bell/Boeing V-22 tiltrotor aircraft partnership is expected to be second to Sikorsky, with $18.3 billion. Boeing alone is third with $12.9 billion.

The outlook for a number of companies is dependent on major modification programs. This is particularly so for Boeing. More than 80 per cent of the projected military rotorcraft output at Boeing during the next 10 years is expected to be remanufactured rotorcraft. Sikorsky is not as dependent on modification programs, though they do constitute an important part of the company's future. Meanwhile, Sikorsky's acquisition of Schweizer provides it with an enhanced presence in the light helicopter market and the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) market.

AgustaWestland is currently in a state of transition, with co-owner Finmeccanica in the process of acquiring GKN's 50 percent stake in the joint venture. The military rotorcraft market could see further merger and acquisition activity. AgustaWestland and Bell could perhaps in time formally merge. Though Lockheed and Northrop Grumman do not currently build rotorcraft airframes, they are involved in the industry, leading to some speculation that one or both could eventually decide to acquire a rotorcraft manufacturer.

Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessment – utilized by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments – worldwide.

Details available from: Forecast International Inc. Tel: +1 203-426- 0800; E-mail: monty.nebinger@forecast1.com