Unveiling the complex web: exploring the international fossil fuel trade network and its impact on CO₂ emissions and trade patterns

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the structure of the international fossil fuel trade network (IFFTN) and assess its effects on CO₂ emissions and global trade patterns. This research integrates complex network theory with econometric analysis to explore the dynamics of fossil fuel trade and its implications for environmental quality across various countries. Specifically, the study analyses the roles of different countries within this global network, examines the relationship between trade volumes and environmental impacts and evaluates how advancements in renewable energy generation could mitigate these effects. Through this comprehensive examination, the study seeks to provide an in-depth understanding of the trade-environment nexus.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses data on international fossil fuel trade from 2005 to 2020, which includes 74 countries categorized as high-income, low-income and Asian economies based on their roles in the global market. This research constructs the IFFTN, where countries are depicted as nodes and trade links as edges. The authors analyse network parameters, such as degree, density and clustering coefficient, along with trade metrics like strength and centrality. These parameters are integrated into a panel fixed effects model, with the robustness of the findings confirmed through dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) analysis.

Findings

The study finds that the dynamic fossil fuel trade network includes key players such as the USA, China, France, India, the Netherlands and South Korea. It demonstrates increased connectivity and dependence among these countries, directly correlating with higher CO₂ emissions. However, this correlation is mitigated by the adoption of renewable energy, particularly in Asia and high-income countries. The impact on environmental quality is mediated through scale, technique and composition effects, suggesting significant environmental improvements through enhanced industry structure, technological progress and economies of scale.

Research limitations/implications

This study recognizes several limitations. First, the categorization of countries into Asian economies, low-income and high-income groups may oversimplify the intricate effects of economic status on environmental impacts. Second, focusing primarily on per capita CO₂ emissions may neglect other critical environmental indicators. Future research should consider examining regional variations and including a wider range of environmental metrics. This approach would offer a more detailed perspective on the nuanced interactions between economic development and environmental sustainability, enhancing the depth and applicability of the findings.

Practical implications

To address the challenges of the IFFTN and CO₂ emissions, several practical policy measures are recommended. Governments should enhance international cooperation by establishing global platforms for sharing best practices and initiating technology transfer agreements to accelerate the adoption of energy-efficient technologies. Additionally, a phased transition towards more sustainable energy sources is crucial, involving increased investment in the renewable energy sector alongside incentives for adopting green technologies. On the trade front, governments should modify trade partnerships to address congestion externalities, fostering a shift towards more sustainable and environmentally friendly trade practices.

Social implications

The social implications of the IFFTN are profound. As global reliance on fossil fuels continues, communities face heightened health risks due to increased pollution. Transitioning to renewable energy can alleviate these health concerns and the creation of green technologies, enhancing social well-being. Moreover, equitable access to energy-efficient solutions can reduce energy poverty, particularly in low-income countries, fostering greater societal resilience and inclusivity.

Originality/value

This study offers a pioneering examination of the trade-energy nexus across 74 countries, using complex network models to analyse diverse economic settings, particularly in Asian economies dominated by non-renewable energy. It identifies key market players and assesses their impact on dynamics such as congestion and market power. Additionally, the study explores the positive effects of renewable energy capacity on these relationships, highlighting its crucial role in driving sustainable energy transitions and enhancing the understanding of indirect trade-environment interactions.

Citation

Vidya, C., M., S. and D., U. (2024), "Unveiling the complex web: exploring the international fossil fuel trade network and its impact on CO₂ emissions and trade patterns", Studies in Economics and Finance, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-12-2023-0697