Inflation persistence: new evidence across US metro areas

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the degree of inflation persistence across all US metro areas over the post-pandemic period.

Design/methodology/approach

Both the Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) model and a fractional integration model, that is the Multivariate Unobserved-Components Stochastic Volatility Outlier-adjusted (MUCSVO) model are estimated.

Findings

The findings provide clear evidence of a significant inflation persistence in ten metro areas and the absence of persistence in the remaining areas, implying that in the former areas, inflation clearly indicates a strong persistent pattern. In other words, in these ten areas, the persistent component dominates the evolution of the trend and stands as a significant driver of inflation.

Research limitations/implications

The findings have important implications for US policymakers to consider implementing more targeted policies to address inflation in specific metro areas to reduce the overall inflation rate, or they may need to consider tailoring fiscal policies to address inflationary pressures in specific metro areas. The findings illustrate the need for targeted policy interventions to address inflationary pressures in specific areas, as well as the importance of understanding the drivers of inflation persistence to develop effective policy responses. The findings also provide insights to firms on how to mitigate the risks of inflation. They may need to diversify their products or supplier base so that they do not rely on areas experiencing persistent inflation.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the literature by extending the discussion of the impact of the recent pandemic crisis on US regional inflation. The findings have important implications for US policymakers to consider implementing more targeted policies to address inflation in specific metro areas to reduce the overall inflation rate, or they may need to consider tailoring fiscal policies to address inflationary pressures in specific metro areas. The findings illustrate the need for targeted policy interventions to address inflationary pressures in specific areas, as well as the importance of understanding the drivers of inflation persistence to develop effective policy responses. The findings also provide insights to firms on how to mitigate the risks of inflation. They may need to diversify their products or supplier base so that they do not rely on areas experiencing persistent inflation.

Citation

Apergis, N. (2024), "Inflation persistence: new evidence across US metro areas", Studies in Economics and Finance, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-03-2024-0135