Seasonal Influences on Electricity Demand in the Mid-Atlantic Region

Abstract

The relationship between electricity demand and weather in the United States has been studied as of late due to increased demand, de-regulation, and new pricing models. The influence of weather or seasonality in energy consumption, particularly electricity demand, has been widely researched. A significant scientific interest in the seasonality of energy consumption has led to an important number of papers exploring the role of weather variability and change on energy consumption. Most of these papers model demand as a function of seasonal climate factors.

The goal of this research is a broad examination of monthly residential electricity demand for a region of the mid-Atlantic using Excel and step-wise regression. This is achieved by using a sequence of models built in Excel in which different patterns are gradually introduced in the estimations. Data over a seven-year period is utilized. A backward elimination step-wise regression analysis is employed to determine which independent variables best model the data. Initial independent variables included high monthly temperature, low monthly temperature, time, year, month, seasonal quarter, and introduction of a “green” tax credit for solar and wind energy.

Models for forecasting the electricity demand and the predictive power of these models is assessed. The work is organized as follows: Data description and the methodology, trend and the seasonality of electricity usage in the mid-Atlantic region, the predictive power and seasonality of the models, and main conclusions drawn from the study.

Citation

Kros, J.F. (2011), "Seasonal Influences on Electricity Demand in the Mid-Atlantic Region", Lawrence, K.D. and Klimberg, R.K. (Ed.) Advances in Business and Management Forecasting (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, Vol. 8), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 13-29. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-4070(2011)0000008005