Modelling the Sustainable Socio-Economic Development of Russia and Other Countries via the Digital Model Toolkit of the Quasi-Periodic Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Under current conditions, strong sustainable socio-economic development of major metropolitan areas in separate regions and separate countries comparable to them in size is possible with the optimal management of a set of anti-epidemic measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. This chapter constructs the first numerical model of the quasi-periodic dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was created based on the innovative model of the Kondratiev waves developed by the authors in their previous works. The authors found a close approximation between the model and the actual data for the four waves of development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Moscow. It was also noted that this model applies to small countries close in population to Moscow when comparing the correlation and autocorrelation curves. The data calculated by the models indicate the possibility of the practical application of the developed model for metropolitan areas and small countries comparable to them in size and population. Additionally, the model showed the accuracy of the results for such large countries as Russia and the United States.

Citation

Grachev, I.D., Grachev, D.I., Larin, S.N., Noack, N.V. and Baranova, N.M. (2023), "Modelling the Sustainable Socio-Economic Development of Russia and Other Countries via the Digital Model Toolkit of the Quasi-Periodic Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic", Popkova, E.G. (Ed.) Game Strategies for Business Integration in the Digital Economy (Advances in Business Marketing and Purchasing, Vol. 27), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 171-180. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1069-096420230000027018