Vostok Oil project will define Russia’s oil future

Significance

Vostok is expected to produce 2 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2030, with all exports going via the strategically important Northern Sea Route (NSR). The Kremlin hopes it will enable Russia to meet growing energy demand from China and India.

Impacts

• The share of taxes derived from oil and gas production in federal tax revenues is likely to continue declining.
• Gas exports are unlikely to reach pre-war levels for at least a decade, even if the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline to China is built.
• Russia’s ambitions to become a liquified natural gas superpower will be constrained by Western sanctions.