Pyongyang-Moscow pact raises alarm in Seoul

Significance

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s national security adviser has hinted that the new treaty signed in Pyongyang, which includes a mutual defence pledge, could prompt Seoul to start supplying arms directly to Ukraine, something it has not done before. On June 20, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that this would be a “very big mistake.”

Impacts

• The new Moscow-Pyongyang alliance is shallow and opportunistic; a long history of mutual mistrust means Putin is unlikely to act recklessly.
• Moscow’s interests are not served by fomenting conflict in Korea; doing so would also anger China, which seeks stability on the peninsula.
• Although Yoon is strongly pro-US and anti-North Korea, he has handled Russia (and China) carefully; he will not lightly change that stance.
• Much hinges on how the new accord is implemented: precedent suggests it should not be interpreted literally.