Guinea's Doumbouya will face growing discontent

Significance

The exercise aims to assess each political formation’s conformity with existing laws. This is the second time the junta has conducted such an evaluation. Many opposition figures see this as an attempt by the junta to suppress the opposition. This occurs in a context of protest bans, wide-scale media shutdowns and increasing social unrest.

Impacts

• A prolonged political crisis could increase the coup risk.
• Power shortages may ease somewhat over the rainy season as water levels increase in hydroelectric dams.
• Projected GDP growth may slow due to the December 2023 fuel depot explosion.