Burkina Faso's junta may escalate repressive measures

Significance

This represents the largest single loss of soldiers since the outbreak of the jihadist insurgency. Mounting losses, and broader failures to stem the spread of insurgents, have reportedly amplified discontent within the military. This coincides with growing repression of civil society voices and media critical of the ruling junta.

Impacts

• The coup risk will be elevated in the coming weeks.
• The army may increasingly and systematically resort to ethnic-based targeting, especially of Fulani communities.
• The junta may seek to draft a new constitution to entrench its authority.