Election pressures will undermine German government

Significance

The centre-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the far-left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) were the main beneficiaries. While Chancellor Olaf Scholz has refused calls to follow the French example and call snap elections, his coalition is becoming increasingly fractious as it stumbles towards key state elections in eastern Germany in September.

Impacts

• A poor result for the SPD in September’s elections could result in an attempt to oust Scholz as party leader.
• A poor result for the CDU in September could potentially fuel a debate about the future of Friedrich Merz’s leadership.
• Green goals to reinforce their core identity on climate spending could mar Robert Habeck’s chances to lead the party into the next election.
• With a strong movement of voters to radical and fringe parties, the EU elections have further weakened Germany’s political centre.