Honeymoon period of Panama’s Mulino will be brief

Significance

Mulino assumed the candidacy late in the race, after former President Ricardo Martinelli (2009-14) was disqualified over a corruption conviction. The new president will face numerous challenges, including debt, water shortages and a strained pension system. With RM securing only a minority of seats in the incoming legislature, he will require cross-party support.

Impacts

• Martinelli, who has sought asylum in Nicaragua’s embassy, will probably avoid prison with Mulino’s protection.
• Martinelli’s departure for Nicaragua would reduce perceptions of Mulino as a potential puppet leader.
• Barring a major new graft scandal, US hopes of reducing migration via Panama will outweigh US concerns over Mulino’s Martinelli ties.