Mali's opposition will struggle to challenge the junta

Significance

Presidential elections were indefinitely postponed in September 2023. Prime Minister Choguel Maiga has stated that persistent insecurity means that elections are unrealistic. Dissenters are pushing back against continued military rule, but their efforts are constrained by both serious repression and the junta’s apparent widespread domestic popularity.

Impacts

• Senegal’s recent presidential election may lead to improved ties with Bamako.
• The only significant threat to the junta’s survival this year comes from within the military, and a junior officers' coup is possible
• Recent fighting between northern rebels and jihadists could benefit the junta’s counter-insurgency efforts.