Peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray region remains fragile

Significance

The meeting comes amid escalating rhetoric over the failure to implement key aspects of the agreement, and warnings of the risk of famine and even the potential for renewed conflict.

Impacts

• Efforts to resolve the contested lands quickly may intensify frictions within the ruling party and inflame the armed rebellion in Amhara.
• Inertia in the peace process could undermine government efforts to conclude already delayed debt restructuring talks.
• Economic challenges will exacerbate serious humanitarian needs and reduce the likelihood of federal support to embattled regions.