Islamic State poses limited threat in Afghanistan

Significance

Some observers have suggested that this is a sign of an IS-K resurgence. The ruling Taliban have tried hard since their takeover in 2021 to suppress the group, a long-standing enemy.

Impacts

• The absence of a serious IS-K threat helps the Taliban’s push to secure diplomatic recognition in the region.
• As part of moves to strengthen its profile, IS-K will step up efforts to organise attacks in Turkey and Europe.
• If any new donors back IS-K, they would do so out of a desire to pressure the Taliban.