Nigeria's 2024 budget projections are likely untenable

Significance

Defence and security get the largest sectoral allocation at NGN3.25tn, followed by education at NGN2.2tn and health and infrastructure, each at NGN1.33tn. However, the budget is based on highly optimistic projections for Nigeria’s economy and expected government revenues.

Impacts

• The budget may be further increased by the National Assembly before it is passed.
• Tinubu may resist pressure from international donors to increase the petrol pump price, effectively reinstating a partial fuel subsidy.
• Revenue shortfalls may lead to postponed debt interest repayments to the central bank.
• Foreign exchange shortages may make it difficult to stabilise the exchange rate.