Unwavering Republican support for Trump may be costly

Significance

US presidential primary elections have calendars and rules that change from one cycle to the next. For Republicans in 2024, changes designed to benefit Trump may allow him to wrap up the nomination quickly, prior to the start of a major trial.

Impacts

• Trump’s trials will encourage House Republicans to bring articles of impeachment against President Joe Biden as a distraction.
• A continuation of low approval ratings for both candidates during 2024 may see more voters swing between them as events develop.
• Presidential debates may not be held next year if Trump sees an advantage in skipping them, as he has done for the primary.