Opposition repression will poison Chad reconciliation

Significance

Major opposition figure Succes Masra, who subsequently fled into exile, on October 16 indicated that he would postpone his planned return to Chad. This follows threats of detention and the October 8 arrest of dozens of his supporters. Meanwhile a controversial constitutional referendum is scheduled in December.

Impacts

• Political tensions may encourage attacks by rebel armed groups based in Libya or the Central African Republic.
• France may reduce its overall troop numbers in the country following a planned re-organisation of its Africa presence.
• President Deby may reshuffle the transitional government following two separate sex-tape scandals involving two ministers.