Algeria will carefully navigate Niger’s crisis

Significance

Algeria has condemned Niger’s July 26 coup but also publicly opposed the threat of an armed intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). It warns of a scenario similar to post-intervention instability in Libya, another of its troubled neighbours.

Impacts

• Jihadist violence could escalate in Niger, yet a major spillover of jihadist attacks into tightly controlled Algeria is unlikely.
• France’s position favouring the restoration of Niger’s president at all costs could worsen tensions between Algiers and Paris.
• Algeria’s relations with the United States will continue to improve.