Amhara unrest may be an inflection point for Ethiopia

Significance

The government has deployed the army and claims to have restored control in most major cities. However, the fighting has shaken confidence in Ethiopia’s stability.

Impacts

• The ongoing farming season, which already faced difficulties due to shortages of fertiliser and seeds, will be seriously disrupted.
• Redeployments of federal troops to Amhara may increase vulnerabilities in other regions with rebel activities, particularly Oromia.
• The risk of fragmentation within the army will increase amid Amhara accusations that it has become an ethnic Oromo-dominated force.
• Rhetoric around the conflict and the perceived ‘Oromisation’ of the army will exacerbate Amhara-Oromo tensions.
• If the fighting continues, there is a risk that Tigray might try to reclaim contested lands from Amhara, which could draw Eritrea in.