China would prefer peaceful unification with Taiwan

Significance

Most Taiwanese are hostile to any idea that they could lose the democratic freedoms that they currently enjoy. US security guarantees are a powerful disincentive for Beijing to attack Taiwan. They also obviate the need for Taipei to discuss sovereignty with Beijing. That said, the prospect of peaceful unification at some point is not impossible.

Impacts

• The balance of power in East Asia and the Pacific would alter drastically.
• US strategic options in the region would be weakened and China’s strengthened.
• China’s economic and industrial might would increase, testing international trade and security relations.
• China’s claims in the South China Sea would be strengthened, in alignment with Taiwan’s.
• All diplomatic recognition of Taiwan would switch to China.