Guinea's Doumbouya will look to counter coup threats

Significance

This likely reflects serious tension within the armed forces and probably constitutes an effort to neutralise potential coup threats. Meanwhile, little progress has been made on the formal transition to constitutional civilian rule.

Impacts

• Recurring disruptive and violent street protests are likely in the coming months.
• High inflation and growing power outages will lead to more support for opposition protests.
• France may seek to improve diplomatic ties with the junta to limit its outreach to Russia.