The Tunisian military will face new tests

Significance

The military court’s involvement in sentencing political figures has increased during President Kais Saied’s tenure. The latest sentence, issued on January 20, was against several politicians and a lawyer.

Impacts

• Military officers and retirees may become involved in politics, including by assuming government positions and running for elections.
• The government may use the army to break up riots and labour strikes as the political and economic situation deteriorates.
• US assistance to Tunisia, including military aid and economic aid, will decrease, pending improvements in political freedoms.
• Saied's rejection of conditions attached to a USD1.9bn IMF loan will make it difficult for Tunisia to attract other external aid.
• Fighting illegal immigration will be central to the military’s activities, enabling it to build strong ties with European counterparts.