Nigeria’s state polls will sustain fragile status quo

Significance

Incumbents and incumbent parties fared well in most states, and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) won 15 states while the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won nine. The Labour Party (LP) -- whose leader Peter Obi had hoped to produce an upset in the presidential election -- clinched just one state.

Impacts

• Incumbent victories in key states such as Lagos and Borno will likely mean significant continuity in policymaking and personnel.
• Reports of fraud, intimidation and violence did not greatly affect Nigeria’s international image, suggesting the bar for success was low.
• Re-run elections in Adamawa and Kebbi could produce flashpoints for political violence, online hate speech or misinformation.