Trudeau-Biden talks make good optics and some progress

Significance

Biden and his host, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, worked hard to project positive bilateral relations, stressing their alignment on international issues. There was some progress on recent concerns, though little mention of perennial points of friction. Although welcome, the visit came at an awkward time for Trudeau, whose Liberal government is under pressure over Chinese political interference.

Impacts

• Illegal migration from the United States into Canada will slow now that the Safe Third Party Agreement has been amended.
• Opportunities for Canadian companies in critical minerals and other areas should increase following US concessions.
• Canada’s recently confirmed purchase of F-35 fighter jets should increase its ability to project power in the Arctic.
• The Liberal government will continue to resist pressure from Biden for Canadian military intervention in Haiti.
• Opposition parties will push Trudeau further on the Chinese interference issue, sensing the government’s vulnerability.