Canada may need to move Arctic issues up the agenda

Significance

In recent decades, the focus for Ottawa has been on Russian interest in the Arctic, but Beijing has been showing increased diplomatic and military interest in the region. Canada faces an uphill battle to assert sovereignty in its Arctic North and it is not clear that Washington’s Arctic interests will help.

Impacts

• Melting sea ice will boost economic opportunity for Canada’s northern communities as they become viable commercial locations.
• Canadian governments will spend to boost Canada’s military presence in the North but new capabilities will be slow to emerge.
• Russian power projection in the Arctic will be through icebreakers and submarines for the foreseeable future.
• China hopes to deploy significant resources into mining in Northern Canadian communities, which are struggling for investment.
• Canada will collaborate more closely with Arctic Council allies to close ranks against Russian and Chinese activity.