Foreign ties may help to alleviate Cuba’s crises

Significance

International relations may provide some respite. Recent visits by President Miguel Diaz-Canel to Algiers, Moscow, Istanbul and Beijing prompted several gestures that should ease some of Cuba’s financial strains. The inauguration of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil this month also bolsters hope of improved regional relations.

Impacts

• The government will struggle to regain popular trust but emigration will serve as a pressure valve for discontent.
• Due to insufficient infrastructure investment, regular service interruptions and accidents will continue to affect daily life.
• Tourism will return, but not to pre-pandemic levels, as domestic hardship reduces Cuba’s attractiveness as a travel destination.
• Havana’s legal win last month over the trademark rights to Cohiba cigars will help to protect one of the few stable export products.