Venezuelan opposition may fail to halt new Maduro term

Significance

The 2024 presidential elections looking increasingly unlikely to produce a political transition. The prospect of a third term for President Nicolas Maduro is strengthened by the implosion of the opposition. Dialogue efforts in Mexico will be critical for securing electoral conditions that will put the next presidential term on a legitimate footing.

Impacts

• The government will seek to snuff out any renewed opposition traction, including seeking the arrest of the new National Assembly president.
• The opposition's implosion inevitably strengthens the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela ahead of the 2024 election.
• Recriminations from the vote against Guaido will distract from planned opposition primaries to select a unity presidential candidate.