Burkina Faso security reforms will require resources

Significance

Evidence for a Wagner deployment is currently lacking. However, junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traore has recently made substantial efforts to reinvigorate the security sector in the face of deeply rooted jihadist insurgencies and needs additional resources to do so.

Impacts

• Traore may face a medium-term coup risk from disgruntled senior officers.
• Any Wagner Group deployment would undermine security cooperation with Burkina Faso's coastal neighbours and Niger.
• Deteriorating relations with France may lead to the withdrawal of France's military contingent.