China-UK relations will gradually deteriorate further

Significance

China is the United Kingdom’s third-largest trading partner, but political trust between the two is in short supply. The security and prosperity of the United Kingdom depend on adroit management of this complex relationship, which under recent governments has become more confrontational.

Impacts

• Significant opportunities remain in tourism and education, healthcare, financial services and industries that support aging populations.
• As US-China relations worsen, London will come under greater pressure to support Washington on a growing range of issues.
• The United Kingdom's advanced technology, including cyber capabilities and AI, puts it near the front line in the US-China 'tech war'.
• London will have opportunities to cooperate with Tokyo, a fellow middle power and liberal democracy, to respond to the risks China poses.