Azerbaijan unlikely to meet EU's gas import ambition

Significance

The EU wants to double gas imports from Azerbaijan by 2027, but this seems unrealistic judging by the constraints on production and export capacity. BP says the main gas field used for exports cannot meet the extra demand, and other fields will not make up the difference. Turkmen gas would be a game-changer but accessing significant volumes by 2027 looks impossible.

Impacts

• EU engagement with Azerbaijan will run into old problems concerning human rights and democracy.
• Turkmenistan's new President Serdar Berdimuhamedov shows few signs of action on gas export options.
• Georgia's proximity to a hostile Russia makes it the weakest link on westward pipeline routes.