Court ruling is key to Scottish independence hopes

Significance

The Scottish government will take a case to the UK Supreme Court this October to see whether the Scottish Parliament can introduce legislation to hold a referendum. If the court rules against this, Sturgeon says the next UK general election will be a "de facto referendum".

Impacts

• If London contests the legitimacy of a referendum deemed lawful by the courts, it risks fuelling support for Scottish independence.
• The heightened salience of the independence question may boost the Conservative Party’s electoral prospects.
• If Labour won the next election without a majority, it would likely prioritise cooperation with the Liberal Democrats rather than the SNP.