Election uncertainty threatens South Sudan’s stability

Significance

Although President Salva Kiir’s allies may be enticed by the prospect of cementing their hegemonic position, other leaders fear that elections would be used to exclude them from power and are demanding that key provisions of the 2018 peace agreement that have so far been delayed be implemented before polls are held.

Impacts

• A post-electoral consolidation of power could marginalise important political and ethnic groups and further polarise the political system.
• With over 4 million people still displaced, no new census and persistent insecurity, huge numbers would be disenfranchised in any polls.
• The National Elections Commission is underfunded and lacks capacity to organise such a challenging endeavour.