Washington's China policy will become more targeted

Significance

The Biden White House sees China as its central challenge in foreign affairs but Blinken has sketched its policy framework with a board brush, attempting to leave some room for manoeuvre. Further economic decoupling is unlikely, but the emphasis on limiting Chinese access to cutting-edge technology will continue.

Impacts

• Biden does not seek to return to the more positive relationship of the Obama era; nor will whoever wins the White House in 2024.
• Irrespective of political impediments, bilateral trade will increase as the two sides remain major trading partners.
• The US trade deficit will grow because it is now difficult to find other sources for most products still imported from China.
• The White House will increasingly insist that European and Indo-Pacific partners and allies cooperate on China-related issues.