China's Party Congress will lay ground for next decade

Significance

Xi Jinping is positioned to begin a third term as Party leader, despite apparent misjudgements and setbacks this year, though Chinese elite politics are so opaque that his position cannot be taken completely for granted. Appointments to other key posts are less certain and potentially more revealing.

Impacts

• China is unlikely to alter its course of increasing authoritarian and economic control combined with selective economic liberalisation.
• The younger entrants to the Politburo or its Standing Committee will include potential successors to Xi in 2027 or 2032.
• Xi's policies, purges and power grabs will have made enemies, but there is no reason to think they are in a position to remove him.