Political divisions muted but not dead in Ukraine

Significance

The authorities are clamping down on political parties seen as pro-Russian, although they took a month to do so. The invasion has focused the political class's attention on resisting the existential threat. Political manoeuvring and competition, although subordinated to the struggle, have not disappeared from view.

Impacts

• If Ukraine emerges undefeated, Zelensky is almost certainly guaranteed a second term.
• Political infighting will resume if peace is achieved, but initially not with the same intensity as before.
• Russia-friendly political forces will diminish greatly in size and weight but are unlikely to disappear altogether.