Russia-Ukraine war will disrupt global wheat trade

Significance

The war has curtailed those exports and will continue to do so. Ukraine normally ships the bulk of its exports in the early months of the agricultural year; the closure of ports has curtailed additional exports, including of maize.

Impacts

• Russia's trade partners will be further hit by the suspension of fertiliser exports, ostensibly due to foreign logistical disruption.
• Reduced wheat availability will affect Afghanistan, Yemen and Ethiopia which are already experiencing great food insecurity.
• A shortfall in Ukrainian maize will affect EU farmers who are heavily reliant on it for animal feed.
• As food prices climb in Russia, a revival of production on household plots is likely.