South Sudan faces integration and elections dilemmas

Significance

This has been compounded by a major split within First Vice-President Riek Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in Opposition (SPLM-IO), which has redrawn the political map.

Impacts

• There are serious technical challenges to holding elections, which may ultimately necessitate a delay irrespective of political preferences.
• Problems related to military integration and other security modalities are likely to be used as the main justification to delay elections.
• The success of SPLM-IO dissidents in securing their own deal with Kiir may encourage others to follow suit, which Kiir may encourage.