Mali counterterrorism will falter after French exit

Significance

Its move has prompted the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to introduce harsh sanctions. Meanwhile, relations with key security partner France have broken down, culminating in France’s decision to withdraw its forces from the country. Bamako’s political upheaval and international isolation will have repercussions on its effort to counter the growing jihadist insurgency.

Impacts

• Coastal West African countries, notably Ivory Coast, Benin and Togo, could see escalating jihadist attacks if Mali’s security worsens.
• A surge in jihadist attacks could worsen relations with France further, with the military government likely to blame them on Paris.
• If sanctions persist, the risk of a further coup and serious protests will increase.
• ECOWAS agreement to a longer transition would damage its credibility and complicate the return of Guinea and Burkina Faso to civilian rule.