Urban centres will challenge Africa's ruling parties

Significance

Urban discontent also contributed to the failure of South Africa’s ANC to secure a majority of the popular vote in last year’s municipal elections. This occurs against a background of rapid, though highly differentiated, urbanisation across much of Africa. This has created new challenges for ruling parties seeking to stay in power.

Impacts

• Authoritarian governments that fail to adapt will resort to greater levels of repression in order to retain power.
• Urban politics may foster a growing number of populist leaders seeking to rally support on the basis of cross-ethnic appeals.
• The centrality of ethnicity to political mobilisation could erode in some countries in the longer term.
• In the short term, overcrowding and competition over jobs may also inflame ethnic tensions in urban areas.