Emirati shift may intensify Yemen conflict

Significance

This follows an unusual Huthi drone and missile attack against the United Arab Emirates (UAE, a partner in the coalition), which killed three people. The Huthis were responding to the success of UAE-backed forces in southern Yemen, the Amaliqa Brigades, in taking back the southern governorate of Shabwa.

Impacts

• Local interests and provincial politics will increasingly drive southern outcomes, given the weakness of national-level Yemeni actors.
• Tensions may resurge with Saudi Arabia as the UAE focuses on sidelining forces linked to the Muslim Brotherhood -- and southern autonomy.
• A serious Huthi drone strike affecting international areas in Dubai could have a dramatic impact on tourists and investors.